Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[eyewall]

Any tick downward in NOVA is my fault since I am up here. 

[stormy]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS storm totals 

A clean Kuchera will not apply.  Too much warming aloft.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Are these short term models like HRRR and RAP based on NAM or GFS? 

Don't know. Sorry.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Starting to join the red flag camp with @NorthArlington101.   I think it'll be a fun storm but wouldn't be shocked at something like 4 to 7".  Not just going just off the NAM, but thermals plus our most favorable models keep cutting back a bit.  Hope I'm wrong as hell.  I'm still going to enjoy it.  This will be our best winter event in a long time around here.

Last January will have been much more fun for MBY if things go as now expected.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Starting to join the red flag camp with @NorthArlington101.   I think it'll be a fun storm but wouldn't be shocked at something like 3 to 7".  Not just going just off the NAM, but thermals plus our most favorable models keep cutting back a bit.  Hope I'm wrong as hell.  I'm still going to enjoy it.  This will be our best winter event in a long time around here.

Im hanging my hat on that whatever falls will be around for a while. 

[mitchnick]

Problem I'm seeing on all the worst modeling is that the primary is in TN, the models show weak low pressure off the coast, but a refusal of the primary to die and transfer it's energy to the coastal. Instead, the primary survives, pumping in warm air aloft as it slowly moves east, and once it makes to the coast it dumps on ENE and our precip has shut off.

[NorthArlington101]

Starting to join the red flag camp with [mention=9980]NorthArlington101[/mention].   I think it'll be a fun storm but wouldn't be shocked at something like 4 to 7".  Not just going just off the NAM, but thermals plus our most favorable models keep cutting back a bit.  Hope I'm wrong as hell.  I'm still going to enjoy it.  This will be our best winter event in a long time around here.

This’ll be fun. Just not what we wanted. Would love 5” of snow and I’ll keep that as my O/U barring a really seismic shift at 18z. Kinda want to drop it to 3” snow but maybe I’m a total downer.

[aldie 22]

It's not even that cold anymore...up to 14

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

It's not even that cold anymore...up to 14

Time to break out the thongs and banana hammocks really.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

It's not even that cold anymore...up to 14

Smells like rain.  15/-2

[high risk]

18 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I sure hope the RRFS MPAS core is wrong. Gets crazy amounts of freezing rain all up the beltway. It's an 06z run as it is delayed but that would be devastating.

        The FV3 RRFS is also going bonkers with the freezing rain.   I *think* it's way, way overdone and favor the sleet bomb idea of the NAM, but this will have to watched closely tomorrow.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This’ll be fun. Just not what we wanted. Would love 5” of snow and I’ll keep that as my O/U barring a really seismic shift at 18z. Kinda want to drop it to 3” snow but maybe I’m a total downer.

Oh, Im still excited for sure dude.  Just trying to set realistic expectations based on red flags I ignore and it always comes back to bite me in the ass.   Hope that thump overperforms.   Im just gonna make sure I'm up for most of the thump

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Time to break out the thongs and banana hammocks really.

The dirty sleet piles will look like sand!!

[Warm Nose]

Goodness the misery in here is just stupid.

 

Enjoy what you get and STFU

[NorthArlington101]

Oh, Im still excited for sure dude.  Just trying to set realistic expectations based on red flags I ignore and it always comes back to bite me in the ass.   Hope that thump overperforms.   Im just gonna make sure I'm up for most of the thump

I’m mostly talking to myself when I’m managing expectations like that (lol)

[Amped]

34 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

The blind squirrel NAM might win this one. 

Sorry I95 south of Providence, its an Ice storm.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Oh, Im still excited for sure dude.  Just trying to set realistic expectations based on red flags I ignore and it always comes back to bite me in the ass.   Hope that thump overperforms.   Im just gonna make sure I'm up for most of the thump

We don’t get too many events. Where the temperature at your house. My house and everybody’s house is pretty much below freezing for the whole event..  mazel tov to that!  And it won’t be 50 on Tuesday either another fun thing that happens around here as you know.  

[87storms]

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It seems from experience that the mix line always pushes faster and further north than modeled / forecasted.   I cannot recall one event where we got less mix than forecasted.

Oh the sleet line is incoming lol (damn near every model has it) but I think we dominate the initial round. This airmass is brutal. I’m not playing basketball outside today and that says something.

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We don’t get too many events. Where the temperature at your house. My house and everybody’s house is pretty much below freezing for the whole event..  mazel tov to that!  And it won’t be 50 on Tuesday either another fun thing that happens around here as you know.  

Ya, geting a winter storm at the start of an arctic intrusion is not all that common. School may be closed for most if not all the week in spots. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK is a nice thump, about 0.7 pre flip for dc.  

[bncho]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Ya, greeting a winter storm at the start of an arctic intrusion is not all that common. School may be closed for most if not all the week in spots. 

If the January 6 event last year closed most counties for at least four out of the five school days, I would expect more from this. ESPECIALLY with the sleet and possible freezing rain.

[baltosquid]

UKMET would be an easy win. Anyone got kuchera for that? Probably gets near max potential for the metros.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

UKMET would be an easy win. Anyone got kuchera for that? Probably gets near max potential for the metros.

 

[alexj7]

Every 6 hours I check back in and the mixing is earlier and earlier. I’m seeing now around 9 AM.

Unfortunately, that will really limit the ability for people to enjoy the storm. We’ll have kids home for likely two days stuck inside, and going out in sleet and freezing rain isn’t a good time. I’d much rather be on the northern fringe and get 4” of powder.

[Terpeast]

Comparing gfs forecast for 18z today with current radar

 

Seems faster? Sleet line a bit south

[baltosquid]

Hmmm, however the UKMET is more aggressive with temps later and flirts with outright rain in the metros. I don't think that will happen at this point given pretty much everything else but probably means more of a FZR event in reality.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not sure that it means anything, but the freezing rain aspect is overperforming in the deep south

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Hmmm, however the UKMET is more aggressive with temps later and flirts with outright rain in the metros. I don't think that will happen at this point given pretty much everything else but probably means more of a FZR event in reality.

Unmet would be a big disruptive event, 6-10 of snow tons of sleet then frz.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure that it means anything, but the freezing rain.Aspect is overperforming in the deep south

Does that mean it's juiced up or more south with the zr line, or a combo of both?

[GreyHat]

47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

Wow look at the green to almost western MD besides the bay and Delaware. If that flash freezes, all my.