Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[LeesburgWx]

Dropped another 3 degrees in an hour. Rocking 15 now here in Hamilton. LFG!

[mappy]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Dropped another 3 degrees in an hour. Rocking 15 now here in Hamilton. LFG!

Yeah it got quite cold. 12 here 

[Terpeast]

Just fell under 20. Now 19.8

[stormtracker]

Just now, mappy said:

Yeah it got quite cold. 12 here 

Down to 20 here.  Drop was quick af.   Feels good to have the cold settled first

[nj2va]

Wow, down to 22/3 here.  -1/-6 at Deep Creek.

[pazzo83]

Wind ripping, 20/-1

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Just fell under 20. Now 19.8

You are 0.5F ahead of me.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

Idk, maybe something to do with gridding on its own data

[SnowGolfBro]

We certainly aren’t going to waste any flakes to melting. Ground will be frozen solid by tomorrow night 

[Interstate]

14.9/-4.0

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. 

Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.  

 

If 6z NAM has backed off would that mean we're in the clear or will we need to wait for 12z?

[Solution Man]

19/0

[jayyy]

12 degrees
Wind chill is -5

[weatherCCB]

40 at 6pm

18 at 11pm

[Chris78]

8 in Smithsburg. 

Definitely artic air

 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, weatherCCB said:

40 at 6pm

18 at 11pm

47 at 3pm -> 20F at 11pm.

[jayyy]

8 in Smithsburg. 
Definitely artic air
 

Hoping the models are underplaying the cold push, but likely not

[Mrs.J]

15.8 here. Feels like 8.9 

-4.4 dew point. 

[Buddy1987]

Anyone got gfs sleet map?

[Jebman]

11 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. 

Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.  

 

Look at national radar. You can see it beginning to come together.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone got gfs sleet map?

[bncho]

19/-1

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Remember when you thought yalls area was the jackpot and gonna receive 2 ft?  How's it looking now?

Like shit.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Are there any historical records of sleet alone?

[konksw]

I feel like somebody needs to call bullshit on this sleet output. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

I feel like somebody needs to call bullshit on this sleet output. 

Bullshit

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Are there any historical records of sleet alone?

This will be no where near 94

[IUsedToHateCold]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If 6z NAM has backed off would that mean we're in the clear or will we need to wait for 12z?

I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign. 

[balltermen]

23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. 

Just saw the 3k NAM.   5" snow followed by 3" sleet.  Would still be quite the storm.  You can't toss it unfortunately.  Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign. 

Now what if NAM stays the course but the other models do not cave to it?