HighStakes Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: Look at mPING as it relies on actual observations, not the colors on radar maps. It currently has sleet up to Ada, OK, right in line with the Euro and HRRR. It does appear the NAM was too warm at the mid levels, though, as it had sleet up to I-40 where it’s currently all snow. I mean you can just take a look at the radar and it's obvious that's sleet falling all through southern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z Mesos tomorrow will be super interesting. Watch the RAP show 13” again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I mean you can just take a look at the radar and it's obvious that's sleet falling all through southern OK. That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20/3 at my place currently 11/-7 where I’ll be for the storm This Arctic shot is no joke 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: That too…reflectivity is bright and CC shows a clear boundary from roughly Ada to McAlester. Still means the NAM was too warm which has me injecting some hopium. If that carries eastward, it would remove the lone model that’s really punching the mid level warmth way quicker/north than others. I know I’ll flip but a few extra hours will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2014921199768240324?s=20 Maue is very big on the RRFS built-in ratio model which looks better than Kuchera for here Kuchera: RRFS Ratio: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’ll say this for the northwest crew, the models are really good out this way with these ratios. 18-20:1 is a good bet for the first 4-6 hrs of the storm before they slowly scale back, but even still, it’s probably 15:1 or better through 15z Sunday. After that, it’ll be a degrading column with the warm nose trying to approach, but flakes will be massive. Clumped aggregates that’ll still amount to 10-12:1 before a flip of any kind. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 AIFS (probably out of its best range) got a bit wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS (probably out of its best range) got a bit wetter. That's probably like 12" of snow in DC with the ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 About the Euro... I can say that it is wetter than 18z for most areas. I do not know about the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, bncho said: That's probably like 12" of snow in DC with the ratios I think it struggles to mix out the sleet…. But more wintry precip all the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17/-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 0z Euro hr 35 has 4" of snow on the ground for DC. we lose thermals at hr 41, or noon. 6 more hours of snow to make it count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Better than 18z for most areas! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GFS like to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Incredible thump on the Euro. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS like to meYeah lowkey folded to the GFS. Just want the NAM on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro finally brings the sauce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So the Euro folded to the GFS after all the shit the GFS took. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah lowkey folded to the GFS. Just want the NAM on board Will fight with the Nam in the morning, night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 30 minutes ago, Ji said: weird. its 10:1 map was more snow than the weenie ratio map the snow maps aren't really useful for this storm. figure out how much liquid you think you'll get as snow. apply a ratio (i think 13:1 for you). And make a forecast. I'll probably rip and read Euro QPF at 12z tomorrow. Tweak a little. It's really good that the Euro is King at QPF. Cause it's super wet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 … euro drops a foot in Baltimore city and 15 here!? Interesting! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A Euro cave to the GFS is a spectacular way to end the day. Also, down to 17.2/-8.9 here... as we all know this cold is real. Tomorrow is it - let's reel it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 What do you make of this euro run [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] Wetter / thumpier pre flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 even if the euro were to flip in immediate DC metro at 15z Sunday. That's around 8-9" of snow followed by 3" sleet. This is a truly sick run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That Euro run is a thing of beauty for DC. Soundings suggest DC holds on until about 17z Sunday - and about 0.9” QPF has fallen already. LFG 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That Euro run is a thing of beauty for DC. Soundings suggest DC holds on until about 17z Sunday - and about 0.9” QPF has fallen already. LFGFor the love of god, be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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