Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn't trying to be a smart-ass, but I look forward to your tutelage.

Dude, the sass that was thrown your way in that post was teenage level

[stormtracker]

0z Monday, hair wetter in some areas S and E of DC

[wxlvr]

7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I would recommend watching some of Fox 5's Mike Thomas's Facebook lives. You will learn a lot!

I have been daily active in this forum for 16 years.  I have always thought that we could do a better job of educating each other.  It was kinda my point.  How can I use the skew T charts to understand the dymanics of this storm.  I could go get a degree in meteorology, or go to Mike Thomas's Facebook page.  I just think we have the expertise in this group that we should leverage.  Ok, sorry folks, done pushing this issue.  going back to lurking.

[stormtracker]

all in all a hold

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, mappy said:

Dude, the sass that was thrown your way in that post was teenage level

28 years as a teacher and you learn that it isn't your issue. It must be rough to be that defensive.

[yoda]

Really wish we could abscond with the GFS snow map again

[NorthArlington101]

[mappy]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

28 years as a teacher and you learn that it isn't your issue. It must be rough to be that defensive.

Send me tips for how to handle my teenager lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

GFS is running out of time to cave.

[wxlvr]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its complex, but the simple answer is that the storm is phasing much farther west than ideal for an all snow event with no temp issues. It’s still cold though. 

Thank you so much Terpeast!  That is partially what I assumed.  I assumed this was because the modeled HP to the north is not as high as was modeled a few days ago, when we were worried about suppression, so the lower HP lets the low track more north and west.

[mappy]

1.2qpf IMBY before any flip. Amazing. 

[WVclimo]

5 hours ago, WVclimo said:

I think that's now the 8th run in a row of the GFS showing 18"+ (Kuchera) for the eastern panhandle of WV

Make that 9 runs in a row for the GFS.

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lock it up lock it in! Love it!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

GFS is running out of time to cave.

If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

[balltermen]

Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet.  

Is this even possible.  Not biting. 

ETA - I was on wrong panel.  flip at 16z-ish. 

[LordBaltimore]

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I'm worried about the low water advisory the most. 

somewhere out there the gortons fisherman is about to get his dinghy stuck on a sandbar, covered in freezing spray, blasted by a winter storm, and then capsized by gale force winds

[umdterps29]

Can someone send snowfall maps for RGEM?


.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Using the 6" line for reference, it looks like that now bows out more to the southeast, which is nice to see.  Can't recall if that's similar to 18Z and earlier but still.

[nj2va]

Looking at soundings, DC flips around 16 or 17z Sunday on the GFS, which is pretty close to the Euro.  GFS QPF is ~0.8” so a really nice thump.

[Interstate]

Still no cave 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Can someone send snowfall maps for RGEM?


.

[psuhoffman]

Rgem 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet.  

Is this even possible.  Not biting. 

The key is that it drops ~0.75-1.00" QPF by that point, huge thump right there.  Whereas the NAM was a lot drier for the snow part (and of course it had an earlier flip as well).

[balltermen]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like .75" QPF before flip DC metro 

i see around 0.85" through 18z which is a foot at 14:1 ratios.  Not predicting this but holding on to snow for an extra 3 hours could mean another 4-5".   The difference between a 9am and 2pm flip is significant as to totals and impact. 

ETA - i was on wrong panel. flip at 16z.  8-10" snow for DC. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Rgem 

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore 

yea i told everyone to shave 4 inches off it and its still a good storm

[balltermen]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looking at soundings, DC flips around 16 or 17z Sunday on the GFS, which is pretty close to the Euro.  GFS QPF is ~0.8” so a really nice thump.

yep. i totally screwed up.  flip is at 16z-ish as you say.  would be 8-10" -ish 

[IUsedToHateCold]

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. 

Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.  

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

It better resembles the terrain and elevation.