Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,635
    Total Members
    25,819
    Most Online
    Donut Hole
    Newest Member
    Donut Hole
    Joined

Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres


H2O
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet.  

Is this even possible.  Not biting. 

The key is that it drops ~0.75-1.00" QPF by that point, huge thump right there.  Whereas the NAM was a lot drier for the snow part (and of course it had an earlier flip as well).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like .75" QPF before flip DC metro 

i see around 0.85" through 18z which is a foot at 14:1 ratios.  Not predicting this but holding on to snow for an extra 3 hours could mean another 4-5".   The difference between a 9am and 2pm flip is significant as to totals and impact. 

ETA - i was on wrong panel. flip at 16z.  8-10" snow for DC. 

  • 100% 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore 

yea i told everyone to shave 4 inches off it and its still a good storm

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looking at soundings, DC flips around 16 or 17z Sunday on the GFS, which is pretty close to the Euro.  GFS QPF is ~0.8” so a really nice thump.

yep. i totally screwed up.  flip is at 16z-ish as you say.  would be 8-10" -ish 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. 

Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Bit of an off-the-wall question but is there a reason that the RGEM has that sort of pockmarked "globby" look in its snow field?

Idk, maybe something to do with gridding on its own data

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. 

Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.  

 

If 6z NAM has backed off would that mean we're in the clear or will we need to wait for 12z?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...