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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2


mappy
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait...was I right?  It's all snow?

Yes cause it’s so flat. It’s got to be way less qpf than last run too. Even more SW energy left behind. We need the right mix of not too much phase but can’t get it all mostly left back there either. 

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Just now, H2O said:

The GFS is the first global since this morning to not try and slam the low into KY/OH/WVA.  Its sees the double lows and doesn't try to go between them

I think it's just about that Western vort interaction - and speaks to how delicate it is. A slightly missed phase and we can get a GFS-like solution. A clean phase and we can be in for a primary into the Ohio Valley. Crazy impact downstream based on some really subtle stuff out west...

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks... heavy precip holds off the warming...which is normal in these type setups...so we don't actually lose that much qpf to the mix...the thump is mostly snow even in DC according to that 

Kinda looks like around 2pm Sunday is when issue starts and ends about 10pm and then snows again for -6 hours and concludes 

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Much prefer this kind of solution where we worry less about taint. It's nice to have even the GFS losing the more wound up solution in the face of what some other guidance has pumped out this afternoon. Might it be out to lunch? Sure, but it's at least showing that the possibility is there of things relaxing just a bit and we end up with cold smoke.

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