January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait...was I right?  It's all snow?

Yes cause it’s so flat. It’s got to be way less qpf than last run too. Even more SW energy left behind. We need the right mix of not too much phase but can’t get it all mostly left back there either. 

[stormtracker]

There's some more shit behind it trying to come up, but it not gonna make it.  What is this??

[Buddy1987]

We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18z GFS crushes central and southern Virginia with sleet and ZR overnight. Legitimate ice storm.

[Amped]

Great gfs run. Too bad its the outlier and its probably wrong.

[stormtracker]

It's still snowing at 4 am Monday

[Ralph Wiggum]

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

[CAPE]

Right where I want it..

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

ICON is too but in a different extreme.

[clskinsfan]

I mean the GFS is going to be a stone cold assassin. Not really buying the double low thing. But it is going to be a smashing. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event. 

I actually thought that overall in the end, the 12Z Euro was rather good for everyone area-wide.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS; ticked south

 

 

[MN Transplant]

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow.  Kuceras are going to be large.

[T. August]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

Yeah but 12z GEFS had a lot of misses to the south.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct?

Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing, trusting the GFS when it’s on an island…we know how that goes.  But long way to go with this one not gonna rule anything out. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow.  Kuceras are going to be large.

About 14” for DC proper.

[H2O]

The GFS is the first global since this morning to not try and slam the low into KY/OH/WVA.  Its sees the double lows and doesn't try to go between them

[SnowtoRain]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event 

Mix line well south and east of Cambridge...too bad tomorrow is Thursday and not Saturday

[Eskimo Joe]

18z GFS is record snowfall for @Bob Chill

[CAPE]

About done here

[Maestrobjwa]

This is indeed the most fraught time (Days 3-5) for modeling to figure out a storm. Just gotta stay patient (easier said than done)

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS; ticked south

At least it's south and not north... counter balance is fine with me

[stormtracker]

Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data.    The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Great gfs run. Too bad its the outlier and its probably wrong.

Actually, I thought the 12Z Euro was more or less similar and rather good overall as well.  And that's even with some sleet.  So not sure how much of an outlier it actually is in the grand scheme.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing

Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data.    The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago.

I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night?

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, H2O said:

The GFS is the first global since this morning to not try and slam the low into KY/OH/WVA.  Its sees the double lows and doesn't try to go between them

I think it's just about that Western vort interaction - and speaks to how delicate it is. A slightly missed phase and we can get a GFS-like solution. A clean phase and we can be in for a primary into the Ohio Valley. Crazy impact downstream based on some really subtle stuff out west...

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks... heavy precip holds off the warming...which is normal in these type setups...so we don't actually lose that much qpf to the mix...the thump is mostly snow even in DC according to that 

Kinda looks like around 2pm Sunday is when issue starts and ends about 10pm and then snows again for -6 hours and concludes 

[mattie g]

Much prefer this kind of solution where we worry less about taint. It's nice to have even the GFS losing the more wound up solution in the face of what some other guidance has pumped out this afternoon. Might it be out to lunch? Sure, but it's at least showing that the possibility is there of things relaxing just a bit and we end up with cold smoke.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is indeed the most fraught time (Days 3-5) for modeling to figure out a storm. Just gotta stay patient (easier said than done)

A window we’re about to exit