TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Wait...was I right? It's all snow? Yes cause it’s so flat. It’s got to be way less qpf than last run too. Even more SW energy left behind. We need the right mix of not too much phase but can’t get it all mostly left back there either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 There's some more shit behind it trying to come up, but it not gonna make it. What is this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18z GFS crushes central and southern Virginia with sleet and ZR overnight. Legitimate ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Great gfs run. Too bad its the outlier and its probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It's still snowing at 4 am Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Right where I want it.. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct? ICON is too but in a different extreme. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I mean the GFS is going to be a stone cold assassin. Not really buying the double low thing. But it is going to be a smashing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event. I actually thought that overall in the end, the 12Z Euro was rather good for everyone area-wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 18Z GFS; ticked south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow. Kuceras are going to be large. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct? Yeah but 12z GEFS had a lot of misses to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So the gfs is currently the clear outlier correct? Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing, trusting the GFS when it’s on an island…we know how that goes. But long way to go with this one not gonna rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, MN Transplant said: It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow. Kuceras are going to be large. About 14” for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The GFS is the first global since this morning to not try and slam the low into KY/OH/WVA. Its sees the double lows and doesn't try to go between them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event Mix line well south and east of Cambridge...too bad tomorrow is Thursday and not Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18z GFS is record snowfall for @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 About done here 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This is indeed the most fraught time (Days 3-5) for modeling to figure out a storm. Just gotta stay patient (easier said than done) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS; ticked south At least it's south and not north... counter balance is fine with me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data. The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago. 5 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Great gfs run. Too bad its the outlier and its probably wrong. Actually, I thought the 12Z Euro was more or less similar and rather good overall as well. And that's even with some sleet. So not sure how much of an outlier it actually is in the grand scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah I think all the major globals show mixing Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data. The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago. I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, H2O said: The GFS is the first global since this morning to not try and slam the low into KY/OH/WVA. Its sees the double lows and doesn't try to go between them I think it's just about that Western vort interaction - and speaks to how delicate it is. A slightly missed phase and we can get a GFS-like solution. A clean phase and we can be in for a primary into the Ohio Valley. Crazy impact downstream based on some really subtle stuff out west... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks... heavy precip holds off the warming...which is normal in these type setups...so we don't actually lose that much qpf to the mix...the thump is mostly snow even in DC according to that Kinda looks like around 2pm Sunday is when issue starts and ends about 10pm and then snows again for -6 hours and concludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Much prefer this kind of solution where we worry less about taint. It's nice to have even the GFS losing the more wound up solution in the face of what some other guidance has pumped out this afternoon. Might it be out to lunch? Sure, but it's at least showing that the possibility is there of things relaxing just a bit and we end up with cold smoke. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: This is indeed the most fraught time (Days 3-5) for modeling to figure out a storm. Just gotta stay patient (easier said than done) A window we’re about to exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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