“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I was tempted to think we might be more like 12 to 16 but I have seen on a number of the precipitation outputs that they are are lower numbers in the Merrimack Valley like often happens due to banding to our south or north. So I’m also thinking about 10 to 14. 

I think that’s a good safe number. Soundings are pretty good here, but it’s tough to sustain huge ratios (20-25:1) with higher QPF. There’s a period on the euro where we’re saturated and in the DGZ from the sfc to H5. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro QPF for moneypitmike

 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why I think 10-14” is the max in swct. We’ll Be seeing the sleet line make ir’s way to the pike by tomorrow…

Not one CT met is calling for that, I guess it’s plausible though. We’ll see, but I doubt it makes it that far north

[dendrite]

Btw….to anyone using the Beta site on Pivotal be careful when clicking soundings. When I’m in landscape mode the lat/long is correct, but when I flip the view to portrait it’s shifting my longitude off by a solid 1°. 

[Masswx]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why I think 10-14” is the max in swct. We’ll Be seeing the sleet line make ir’s way to the pike by tomorrow…

I don’t know I think it will cap out at about route 44 line

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Btw….to anyone using the Beta site on Pivotal be careful when clicking soundings. When I’m in landscape mode the lat/long is correct, but when I flip the view to portrait it’s shifting my longitude off by a solid 1°. 

LOL I reported that because one day I thought my ability to click on a map correctly/accurately was impaired!  Took me a few minutes to figure it out.

[WxWatcher007]

As an aside, look at that high nosing into the central U.S. 

 

Beautiful

[BrianW]

 

 

[bristolri_wx]

27 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not one CT met is calling for that, I guess it’s plausible though. We’ll see, but I doubt it makes it that far north

I would agree. I think sleet doesn’t make it past the immediate coastal zones, at least with the way the 700 - 850 layer is being shown now. Ordinarily, you would expect WAA to bring in a little more but this is an anomalous setup with this much arctic air in place to the north of us - that it’s going to be much more difficult for that warm layer to penetrate than usual. It only lasts for about 6 hours anyway before the coastal slides past us and the UL winds switch around.

If the hi-res stuff sees something different - that changes the narrative lol.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

35 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not one CT met is calling for that, I guess it’s plausible though. We’ll see, but I doubt it makes it that far north

Every CT met knows that sleet will make it to 84 for a time, just matters how early it gets here.

[dryslot]

If it does warm a bit, The Nam will be the first to sniff it out.

[Typhoon Tip]

overnight RGEMs are better than overnight NAMs for this

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If it does warm a bit, The Nam will be the first to sniff it out.

unless it's sniffing glue

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

What a weenie run.  Shoud we be uding the kuch?  J never knoe when ine us more useful than the ither.

 

Can you pist a qpf one?  Tia

has your keyboard been drinking this morning?

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

unless it's sniffing glue

 

[WinterWolf]

What time we think start time is in central CT on Sunday?  8:00 am? 10 am? We be Traveling back from the north.  We want to try and beat the snow before it gets in.  Do we expect this to come in like a wall? Or start out slowly? 

[weathafella]

To me, the difference between 10-15 and 15-20 is the Monday snow.  It seems like Sunday and Sunday night, particularly 4pm-midnight are a slam dunk very heavy snow period 

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Every CT met knows that sleet will make it to 84 for a time, just matters how early it gets here.

That’s not the pike though

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What time we think start time is in central CT on Sunday?  8:00 am? 10 am? We be Traveling back from the north.  We want to try and beat the snow before it gets in.  Do we expect this to come in like a wall? Or start out slowly? 

These types usually come in as a wall

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To me, the difference between 10-15 and 15-20 is the Monday snow.  It seems like Sunday and Sunday night, particularly 4pm-midnight are a slam dunk very heavy snow period 

Yep agree 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To me, the difference between 10-15 and 15-20 is the Monday snow.  It seems like Sunday and Sunday night, particularly 4pm-midnight are a slam dunk very heavy snow period 

If that Monday snow verifies I think someone in northeast MA may pull >24" 

I would not forecast that now but I think there could certainly be some reports. This storm is going to be full of surprises...I can't get over the whole DGZ thing looking around on bufkit lol. I think dendrite mentioned this about the snow ratios and how its difficult to maintain upward of 20:1 - 25:1 but where and when the best lift is occurring...there is going to be a swath verifying those ratios at least for a brief period of time

[512high]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep agree 

Scott is that where the "bulk' is going to be at that time frame? 2" per hour crap?

[tunafish]

Never thought I'd see the day where we're calling 2" per hour 'crap'.  Shame.

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott is that where the "bulk' is going to be at that time frame? 2" per hour crap?

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If that Monday snow verifies I think someone in northeast MA may pull >24" 

I would not forecast that now but I think there could certainly be some reports. This storm is going to be full of surprises...I can't get over the whole DGZ thing looking around on bufkit lol. I think dendrite mentioned this about the snow ratios and how its difficult to maintain upward of 20:1 - 25:1 but where and when the best lift is occurring...there is going to be a swath verifying those ratios at least for a brief period of time

BTV has been hinting at high end ratios up here. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott is that where the "bulk' is going to be at that time frame? 2" per hour crap?

Most is going to fall between about 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. That’s 1-2” per hour stuff. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BTV has been hinting at high end ratios up here. 

Ratios will def be great up that way...the average should easily be in the 15:1 to 20:1 range up there and probably upwards of 22:1 to 23:1 during peak intensity.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If that Monday snow verifies I think someone in northeast MA may pull >24" 

I would not forecast that now but I think there could certainly be some reports. This storm is going to be full of surprises...I can't get over the whole DGZ thing looking around on bufkit lol. I think dendrite mentioned this about the snow ratios and how its difficult to maintain upward of 20:1 - 25:1 but where and when the best lift is occurring...there is going to be a swath verifying those ratios at least for a brief period of time

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it.

If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I think this is a good opener for GYX.

A bit low

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You’re ripping like 0.60”+/6hr at times. Even with clearing there’s going to be compaction on the bottom of those cores as the weight increases on the lower crystals. A little wind will break the crystals down a bit too. So I just find it hard to see 12-15” of fluff in 6hrs during the meat of it.

If you were clearing hourly then yeah…you’re probably getting 20-25:1 hourlies at times. 

Yup...great point. 

I'll say too...looking around at various locations, I would like to start seeing some stronger omega values popping up on some of these soundings. It's easy to get carried away with ratios given everything but we aren't going to automatically snag very high ratios because the DGZ is deep and its cold. There are really a ton of details to go over and analyze on this

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

A bit low

That’s through 7am monday