January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

CMC slightly less amped through 93

The primary goes over Ohio lol

 

[IronTy]

GFS dumps a foot of snow on basically the entire MA and NE (sorry Maine).  One for the ages.  

[87storms]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

CMC slightly less amped through 93

Canadians have a north bias

[North Balti Zen]

Just bigtime LOL that the GFS just 24 hours ago gave us all an areawide 0.0" . Just good stuff from that model. 

[jlewis1111]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Just bigtime LOL that the GFS just 24 hours ago gave us all an areawide 0.0" . Just good stuff from that model. 

Yup and everyone hugging it now lmao

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Sorry y'all, I'll let Randy do his thing next time.

 

There's no need for all of that.   You can do pbp, I'm just saying...when I made that post it WAS drier vs 6z run at the same exact time.    I'm a shit poster and pbp is horrible to mid, but it's the one thing here I do take kinda seriously.   Got PTSD from the old days when people would say great things about a model and BOOM and OMG to then actually see the model and it was some straight up shit.

[psuhoffman]

BTW I wonder if it's not a coincadence that all the major guidance systems come out in inverse of their verification scores 

ICON, GFS, GGEM, UKMET, EC

I know there used to be something to the delay in the euro and its accuracy, they used an initialization process that took longer but was significantly better.  I have not kept up to date with the details of the various guidance over the last 10 years so I can't say for sure this is still true, but it seems odd that basically the longer the model takes to generate, the more accurate it is.  

ETA: Odd meaning maybe not a coincidence 

[TSSN+]

CMC train wreck. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

The primary goes over Ohio lol

Looks like a pretty solid thump before sleet/dryslot... can start mentally trying to get comfortable with that as a "worst" case outcome.

[TowsonWeather]

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The primary goes over Ohio lol

 

H5 was wild with where it started to where it got too...lol

[T. August]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

CMC train wreck. 

Literal disaster. Dry front end then a flip to zr

[Quasievil]

CMC is a complete disaster.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah CMC drives that primary to WV and sleet gets well into PA, still a decent front end thump though. 

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

GFS dumps a foot of snow on basically the entire MA and NE (sorry Maine).  One for the ages.  

The entire DC-BOS corridor gets clobbered with 12-18”+ with generous totals well into the interior. We haven’t had a storm like this in ages.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

CMC is a complete disaster.

foot of snow 10:1 in DC?

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The entire DC-BOS corridor gets clobbered with 12-18”+ with generous totals well into the interior. We haven’t had a storm like this in ages.

CMC - Hold my beer.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

CMC is a complete disaster.

It gives us like 10 inches of snow and we never sniff surface temps above the 20s.  So I'll take that as the disaster scenario.

[stormtracker]

Wait, a primary into Wheeling, WV isn't a good thing?

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The entire DC-BOS corridor gets clobbered with 12-18”+ with generous totals well into the interior. We haven’t had a storm like this in ages.

yeah, been well over a decade.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

CMC is a complete disaster.

 

[Pityflakes]

Seriously how could we fail at this point?  Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture.  Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore.  The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute.  No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.  

[osfan24]

The GFS is garbage so certainly taking it with a grain of salt but CMC being too amped is also something it likes to do. Just show me the Euro

[pazzo83]

the primary is checking in on the Steelers' coaching search.

[dailylurker]

I hope the cmc was the classic rug pull run we always see before a big one. It can't be that sloppy of a storm, right? RIGHT!!!!!???

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

The GFS is garbage so certainly taking it with a grain of salt but CMC being too amped is also something it likes to do. Just show me the Euro

Finally a post that has merit compared to all the backyard bs post

[IUsedToHateCold]

The CMC is out on an island enjoying a cold drink. Just leave it alone. 

[H2O]

Well goddamn CMC.  I mean thats about as opposite a solution as the crazy ass drunk GFS was showing with suppression the other day.  Sad thing is that you can't discount because it is a model that gets weighted.  I just hope its a burp and similar to its tropical bias with Katrinas up the Chessie every summer.  

[Interstate]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

My snow mats did the trick!!!!!

Yeah... I am trying to get the snow and ice to melt off my driveway from this past weekend's event.  I want to start fresh on Saturday/Sunday.

[VA Mad Man]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Sorry y'all, I'll let Randy do his thing next time.

 

And the time after that please