January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[nw baltimore wx]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.

I like this post a lot.

 

 

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

I-95 Ragebait

0h, rage bait!!  Thanks!  That's five across and two down on today's mini!

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

So... we love you too?

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet sometimes runs too warm at the surface. 

Agree. Wouldn’t use Ukmet for anything thermal related.

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I agree that is the general idea here.  Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare.  If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares?  It'll be awesome. 

If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae.

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.

It's definitely going to cut the stuff along the coast and down around the northern neck, and southern MD. The jack will be shown over my area before eventually jacking Carroll County like usual. Book it. I know my climo lol

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

It's definitely going to cut the stuff along the coast and down around the northern neck, and southern MD. The jack will be shown over my area before eventually jacking Carroll County like usual. Book it. I know my climo lol

We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above.

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Agree. Wouldn’t use Ukmet for anything thermal related.

I hear you but if the storm gets that amped and moves that far north... you are going to get a direct fetch off the ocean... 

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae.

Well 12" of snow OTG with 2" of sleet beating into it leaves you with 8" total on the ground when all is said and done. Course, that 8" of now concrete is gonna stay around quite some time. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Will wait until 0z to panic. But would be nice to see a good 12z suite. Need that cold high to come in stronger and have the phase be not so perfect.

[TSSN+]

With the possible significance of this event I wonder when watches go up? Maybe by tomorrow afternoon/evening? 

[WxUSAF]

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

Give me 6z euro with a little less amped and we gold 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Well 12" of snow OTG with 2" of sleet beating into it leaves you with 8" total on the ground when all is said and done. Course, that 8" of now concrete is gonna stay around quite some time. 

Where do I sign up for that? Sounds heavenly.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

And then everyone will be complaining because the snow maps aren't as pretty.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

With the possible significance of this event I wonder when watches go up? Maybe by tomorrow afternoon/evening? 

It’s not real until there are watches issued 

[LeesburgWx]

New data goes in for tonight’s 00z runs, correct? I bet we see some bigger shifting once that is integrating. But the goal today is to hold serve and no more north trends

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

Let's hope.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

One can only hope.. I also like the fact that someone had mentioned earlier the 6Z Euro didn't have an exorbitant amount of members continue the amped theme and if anything either held or lost a couple in the suite. Got to start off with a strong 12Z run.

[NorthArlington101]

Aldie basically said it but LWX pushed their updates to the maps…

[TSSN+]

Just now, mappy said:

It’s not real until there are watches issued 

Need to be ugly blued. The watch color shade is so bleh. 

[H2O]

We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA?  #toosoon

[csnavywx]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Aldie basically said it but LWX pushed their updates to the maps…

I-95 Rejoices!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. 
 

We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours?

I posted earlier the 6z GGEM was colder at 84hrs vs 90hrs at 0z, so they're consistent. 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

It’s not real until there are watches issued 

[WxUSAF]

FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute. 

[osfan24]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I agree that is the general idea here.  Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare.  If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares?  It'll be awesome. 

Getting that coastal low to crank and slow down and getting deformed is what we need to reach that HECS level.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA?  #toosoon

I don’t think anyone seeing advisories. You either getting snow or ice warning levels 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities.

12z HRRR is doing the same. Although at range it is a clownshow. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Will wait until 0z to panic. But would be nice to see a good 12z suite. Need that cold high to come in stronger and have the phase be not so perfect.

Panic is reserved for 52F the day before an event and hoping the storm makes it's own cold air when the 540 line is in Cleveland.  you wake up few hours before the storm and its 41F at 1am a now is all about evap cooling to save the day.  none of that applies here.  we're good!