nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled. I like this post a lot. 18 minutes ago, bncho said: I-95 Ragebait 0h, rage bait!! Thanks! That's five across and two down on today's mini! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, H2O said: So... we love you too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ukmet sometimes runs too warm at the surface. Agree. Wouldn’t use Ukmet for anything thermal related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome. If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, CAPE said: Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro. It's definitely going to cut the stuff along the coast and down around the northern neck, and southern MD. The jack will be shown over my area before eventually jacking Carroll County like usual. Book it. I know my climo lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, dailylurker said: It's definitely going to cut the stuff along the coast and down around the northern neck, and southern MD. The jack will be shown over my area before eventually jacking Carroll County like usual. Book it. I know my climo lol We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said: Agree. Wouldn’t use Ukmet for anything thermal related. I hear you but if the storm gets that amped and moves that far north... you are going to get a direct fetch off the ocean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: If there's 12" on the ground and you dump another 2" of sleet on top, what difference does it make? It's like syrup on an ice cream sundae. Well 12" of snow OTG with 2" of sleet beating into it leaves you with 8" total on the ground when all is said and done. Course, that 8" of now concrete is gonna stay around quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Will wait until 0z to panic. But would be nice to see a good 12z suite. Need that cold high to come in stronger and have the phase be not so perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 With the possible significance of this event I wonder when watches go up? Maybe by tomorrow afternoon/evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? Give me 6z euro with a little less amped and we gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Well 12" of snow OTG with 2" of sleet beating into it leaves you with 8" total on the ground when all is said and done. Course, that 8" of now concrete is gonna stay around quite some time. Where do I sign up for that? Sounds heavenly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? And then everyone will be complaining because the snow maps aren't as pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: With the possible significance of this event I wonder when watches go up? Maybe by tomorrow afternoon/evening? It’s not real until there are watches issued 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 New data goes in for tonight’s 00z runs, correct? I bet we see some bigger shifting once that is integrating. But the goal today is to hold serve and no more north trends 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? One can only hope.. I also like the fact that someone had mentioned earlier the 6Z Euro didn't have an exorbitant amount of members continue the amped theme and if anything either held or lost a couple in the suite. Got to start off with a strong 12Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Aldie basically said it but LWX pushed their updates to the maps… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, mappy said: It’s not real until there are watches issued Need to be ugly blued. The watch color shade is so bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Aldie basically said it but LWX pushed their updates to the maps… I-95 Rejoices! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just saw a 0z vs 6z Ukie H5 change plot on Twitter. Quite a bit less interaction between N and S shortwaves at 21z Friday. TPV also pressing more to our north. We’re probably going to windshield wiper a bit but with progressively less amplitude for next 24-48 hours? I posted earlier the 6z GGEM was colder at 84hrs vs 90hrs at 0z, so they're consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, mappy said: It’s not real until there are watches issued 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 FWIW, we’re in that range where EuroAI has been deadly and I think pretty much our entire sub would sign up for its 6z in a hot minute. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome. Getting that coastal low to crank and slow down and getting deformed is what we need to reach that HECS level. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, H2O said: We are now into the debate over watches and what kind and timing and who gets a WSW vs a WWA? #toosoon I don’t think anyone seeing advisories. You either getting snow or ice warning levels 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: RRFS-A coming into range and has basically the same evolution. Slower/less perfect interaction between 00 and 06Z and a bit stronger with the eastern lobe of the high. Interested to see if this becomes a trend given that both trailing N/S waves have yet to become their own entities. 12z HRRR is doing the same. Although at range it is a clownshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Will wait until 0z to panic. But would be nice to see a good 12z suite. Need that cold high to come in stronger and have the phase be not so perfect. Panic is reserved for 52F the day before an event and hoping the storm makes it's own cold air when the 540 line is in Cleveland. you wake up few hours before the storm and its 41F at 1am a now is all about evap cooling to save the day. none of that applies here. we're good! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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