January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point

How much ice for metro ATL? An inch?

[NorthArlington101]

 

I only count 7 fairly truly devastating misses to the south. 14% of disaster, what could go wrong?

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

How much ice for metro ATL? An inch?

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

[bncho]

upgraded CMC

[NorthArlington101]

Also only about 7 true disaster members on the AIFS Ens

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

@Ji are you following your rule and going with the least snowy model, ie the gfs? Or does that not apply with this system?

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive.

I mean it really is the only reasonable call living in this area.  Never go big this far out...and for us 6 to 10 is MECS

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

Even 1/4-1/2 of those totals is disastrous. 

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

Damn.

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

Crippling ice storm. Gas stations will be closed for days as well. Trees and power lines down. Hard pass.

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point

Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms.  I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all.  There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there.  The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier.  

[annapolismike]

5 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

I really hope that does not pan out for the SE.  That could be devestation. 

 

[clskinsfan]

16 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive.

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

[jayyy]

GDPS Para smokes the entire 95 corridor. Pretty much best case scenario. Probably 16-18” using 10-12:1

Edit - NINJAd. Kuchera map is insane. Cut it by 1/4 at least

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Yea ice storms are garbage. Zero interest in them. I can go ice skating if I desire ice lol.

Sleet bombs can be fun. Especially with an arctic outbreak following it. Literal glacier situation. 

[bncho]

Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2'

[WxUSAF]

Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. 
 

Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2'

close to 3' in Cape-town

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2'

Hasn't the Richmond area been in the bullseye for a few days now? That has got to be a record in consistency. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

That's what I remember from 2010. I mean every broadcast it kept going up and up and up...and my mom and I were like "HERE????? "

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS compared to OZ.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms.  I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all.  There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there.  The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier.  

I was in Atlanta for a wedding during an ice storm in the late 90's. Dont remember the exact date. I was in Conyers actually. The house I was ain backed up to a pine forest. And I can still remember the sound of 15 inch diameter pine trees snapping in half. Power was out for days. It was one of the most incredible weather related things I have ever seen/heard.

[stormtracker]

Like that the EPS got a lil better

[Weather Will]

WB 15Z NBM

[TSSN+]

The first watches for the storm have gone up out west. 

[mitchnick]

6hrs snowfall off latest Sref. Pretty far north.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_006h-mean-imp&rh=2026012015&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[snowmagnet]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

That is my greatest memory of Bob Ryan. I used to “argue” with him on tv and loved watching him increase the forecast. 

[Buddy1987]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2'

@WxWatcher007id sell my soul to you for minimum 2 years if this verified. Let the Reaper come back!

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned 

Anyone know when this will be integrated into the models @high risk @MillvilleWx @WxUSAF

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Anyone know when this will be integrated into the models @high risk @MillvilleWx @WxUSAF

Looks like 0z runs tomorrow night.