Jebman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point How much ice for metro ATL? An inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I only count 7 fairly truly devastating misses to the south. 14% of disaster, what could go wrong? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Jebman said: How much ice for metro ATL? An inch? Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 upgraded CMC 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Also only about 7 true disaster members on the AIFS Ens 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 @Ji are you following your rule and going with the least snowy model, ie the gfs? Or does that not apply with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive. I mean it really is the only reasonable call living in this area. Never go big this far out...and for us 6 to 10 is MECS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals Even 1/4-1/2 of those totals is disastrous. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals Damn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals Crippling ice storm. Gas stations will be closed for days as well. Trees and power lines down. Hard pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms. I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all. There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there. The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annapolismike Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals I really hope that does not pan out for the SE. That could be devestation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive. I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GDPS Para smokes the entire 95 corridor. Pretty much best case scenario. Probably 16-18” using 10-12:1Edit - NINJAd. Kuchera map is insane. Cut it by 1/4 at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea ice storms are garbage. Zero interest in them. I can go ice skating if I desire ice lol. Sleet bombs can be fun. Especially with an arctic outbreak following it. Literal glacier situation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2' 5 3 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2' close to 3' in Cape-town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2' Hasn't the Richmond area been in the bullseye for a few days now? That has got to be a record in consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. That's what I remember from 2010. I mean every broadcast it kept going up and up and up...and my mom and I were like "HERE????? " 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 WB 12Z EPS compared to OZ. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms. I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all. There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there. The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier. I was in Atlanta for a wedding during an ice storm in the late 90's. Dont remember the exact date. I was in Conyers actually. The house I was ain backed up to a pine forest. And I can still remember the sound of 15 inch diameter pine trees snapping in half. Power was out for days. It was one of the most incredible weather related things I have ever seen/heard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Like that the EPS got a lil better 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 WB 15Z NBM 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The first watches for the storm have gone up out west. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6hrs snowfall off latest Sref. Pretty far north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_006h-mean-imp&rh=2026012015&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. That is my greatest memory of Bob Ryan. I used to “argue” with him on tv and loved watching him increase the forecast. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, bncho said: Might as well... the SPIRE is inspiring.... Bob Chill 3', DC, Balt 2' @WxWatcher007id sell my soul to you for minimum 2 years if this verified. Let the Reaper come back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 32 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned Anyone know when this will be integrated into the models @high risk @MillvilleWx @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Anyone know when this will be integrated into the models @high risk @MillvilleWx @WxUSAF Looks like 0z runs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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