January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Kay]

A friendly suggestion that when we want to anticipate, in advance, the dumb things people are going to do, think, and post next, we do it in the banter thread. We know they're going to do, think, and post those things, because they (we) always do lol. We can just deal with it when they do. Or ignore it. Posts anticipating the dumb things are...a bridge too far, maybe just me, sorry guys 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS looks fantastic, def trended slightly NW with the precip and a little more QPF from its 0z run.  Wiggle room.  Probably not a ton of whiffs in the members if I had to guess.

[T. August]

Wxbell stuck at 45… anybody got eps precip?

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Kay said:

A friendly suggestion that when we want to anticipate, in advance, the dumb things people are going to do, think, and post next, we do it in the banter thread. We know they're going to do, think, and post those things, because they (we) always do lol. We can just deal with it when they do. Or ignore it. Posts anticipating the dumb things are...a bridge too far, maybe just me, sorry guys 

We should have a banter threat for any one storm instead of a catch all! I LOL so many times from some of the posts... I want to hone in on them for the storm! Just saying! 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Wxbell stuck at 45… anybody got eps precip?

[Weather Will]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Who said it was meh/awful?

I see now....the first slug went SE and some people got excited.   You were fine!  I am setting my expectations for at least 6 inches; more than 12 inches and a 0 degree low would exceed expectations.  But so much can happen in 6 days....long week ahead.

[SnowenOutThere]

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 

12z

6z

You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I see now....the first slug went SE and some people got excited.   You were fine!  I am setting my expectations for at least 6 inches; more than 12 inches and a 0 degree low would exceed expectations.  But so much can happen in 6 days....long week ahead.

Gonna be a long but very enjoyable week!

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That’s one solid mean for 4/5 days. 

[Ji]

If we set expectations to 8-12 with the outside hope of a HECS....i think we will all be satisfied......

 

 

 

except for me:)

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 

12z

6z

You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. 

A little deeper on the mean and more hugging the coast, as well. Looks good all around

[Amped]

I,m just hoping we can get 1" liquid out of this thing. Kind of feels like weak sauce if we don't. 2010 and 2016 were close to 2-2.5" liquid equivalent if I remember correctly.

[paulythegun]

12z Korean with WELL OVER 1" of QPF regionwide

 

[jayyy]

12z Korean with WELL OVER 1" of QPF regionwide

 

The KMA?? Who knew.

[AdamHLG]

Has there been any updates in the data today as to potential onset time?   Ive heard from noon Saturday to overnight Sunday.  

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 

12z

6z

You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. 

That looks really good to me?? More tucky tucky, more northern edge members, fewer OTS?

[TSSN+]

Just now, AdamHLG said:

Has there been any updates in the data today as to potential onset time?   Ive heard from noon Saturday to overnight Sunday.  

Depending on the model it’s anywhere from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon 

[jayyy]

I really wouldn’t want to be someone living in northern GA, W NC, or E TN right now. The ice storm some of these models are spitting out is insane. QPF above 2” too. Devastating if correct.

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we set expectations to 8-12 with the outside hope of a HECS....i think we will all be satisfied......

 

 

 

except for me:)

I'm staying with 6 to 10...maybe 12 if we're lucky.  

[NorthArlington101]

Looking at the individual EPS members (nice WxBell maps incoming) it's pretty clear the only reasonable cause for concern is suppression. Northern stream running out too far ahead of the southern stream (ULL slowing down) would be my specific concern with what we're seeing but hopefully we've got some room.

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm staying with 6 to 10...maybe 12 if we're lucky.  

I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive.

[TSSN+]

This is the point and click for Westminster. 80% at day 5 is wild 

Sunday

Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 

12z

6z

You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. 

Aka the most important signal for us northern tier folks.

[weathercoins]

6 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Has there been any updates in the data today as to potential onset time?   Ive heard from noon Saturday to overnight Sunday.  

Don’t think it’ll be Noon Saturday unless you’re outside this area 

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I really wouldn’t want to be someone living in northern GA, W NC, or E TN right now. The ice storm some of these models are spitting out is insane. QPF above 2” too. Devastating if correct.

The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point

[NorthArlington101]

Median outcome pretty sexy. Essentially a hold from 06z. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looking at the individual EPS members (nice WxBell maps incoming) it's pretty clear the only reasonable cause for concern is suppression. Northern stream running out too far ahead of the southern stream (ULL slowing down) would be my specific concern with what we're seeing but hopefully we've got some room.

And basically that has to do with how that Baja low rejects, right? (Nervous about that part, lol)

[Alfoman]

Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned 

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Median outcome pretty sexy. Essentially a hold from 06z. 

Hold? Dude that's better!

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I really wouldn’t want to be someone living in northern GA, W NC, or E TN right now. The ice storm some of these models are spitting out is insane. QPF above 2” too. Devastating if correct.

Yea ice storms are garbage. Zero interest in them. I can go ice skating if I desire ice lol.