January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[FatherNature]

Guess I’ll set up a tee time for Saturday.

[rjvanals]

No reason to give up just yet especially w the GFS and Canadian giving us some snow. 

We have the most important ingredient for snow in the cold airmass and the general synoptic setup is pretty good. 

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Ji said:

maybe its the start of its west trend. Its never one snapshot...its always the trend. And did you know the GFS handles the northern stream better in La Nina winter storms than the ECMWF?

Ji please keep your kids from posting from your account. This must be one of your smart ones, takes after the mother. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

maybe its the start of its west trend. Its never one snapshot...its always the trend. And did you know the GFS handles the northern stream better in La Nina winter storms than the ECMWF?

Did it really handle the NS better with the last storm? Or could we call that one more SS-oriented?

[bncho]

Just now, FatherNature said:

Guess I’ll set up a tee time for Saturday.

In 17 degree weather? I don't think so bro.

[weathercoins]

Just now, Ji said:

maybe your boy trump can invest some money into it

Tell him we need it to track the weather in Greenland, or Venezuela, or whatever is randomly on his mind that day and we may be in business 

[FatherNature]

Just now, bncho said:

In 17 degree weather? I don't think so bro.

I should of mentioned at a golf simulator

[RickinBaltimore]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Closer

Four FEET in Salisbury? GFS you wanna share what you are smokin'?

[snowmagnet]

How many times have we seen this? I'm not saying it is going to happen, but remember Jan 3, 2022? That storm was in the long range, disappeared in the mid-range, then Ji brought it back from the dead.  I think the GFS saw it first, but I'm not sure. 

I know that most fantasy storms disappear, but it is not unusual for the Euro to see storms a week or 2 out, lose them, and bring them back 3-4 days before.  

I'm always optimistic, or just crazy. 

[Climate175]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's deflating, but imma hang in there till 0z, including 18z later when the GFS hilariously does a full cave in 6 hours.   Our model really does suck ass. 

Hang in there indeed lol. A "Folks" can't be ruled out entirely, even though things aren't looking the best rn. We've seen the unexpected happen before lol. 

[bncho]

I fucking hate kickers so much.

I fucking hate poor wave spacing so much.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did it really handle the NS better with the last storm? Or could we call that one more SS-oriented?

i have no idea but everytime we have a NS event---someone brings it up. So its become tradition

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Tell him we need it to track the weather in Greenland, or Venezuela, or whatever is randomly on his mind that day and we may be in business 

DMV is Greenland 

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

How many times have we seen this? I'm not saying it is going to happen, but remember Jan 3, 2022? That storm was in the long range, disappeared in the mid-range, then Ji brought it back from the dead.  I think the GFS saw it first, but I'm not sure. 

I know that most fantasy storms disappear, but it is not unusual for the Euro to see storms a week or 2 out, lose them, and bring them back 3-4 days before.  

I'm always optimistic, or just crazy. 

Thursday night or bust lol.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

How many times have we seen this? I'm not saying it is going to happen, but remember Jan 3, 2022? That storm was in the long range, disappeared in the mid-range, then Ji brought it back from the dead.  I think the GFS saw it first, but I'm not sure. 

I know that most fantasy storms disappear, but it is not unusual for the Euro to see storms a week or 2 out, lose them, and bring them back 3-4 days before.  

I'm always optimistic, or just crazy. 

If that’s true, it better start making a move because we are four days out now.

[TowsonWeather]

My sister just sent me a link to Jay’s Wintry Mix on Facebook asking me about the possible storm this weekend. 
 

I’m sort of speechless, tbh. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

I haven't seen a forecast this cold in a long time, maybe since 2014

[WxUSAF]

I wonder if the higher chance for us is that this thing just shifts north and the ULL snow, that’s currently down in the Carolina’s becomes ours? Haven’t seen that on guidance yet but I don’t think it’s totally crazy

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I haven't seen a forecast this cold in a long time, maybe since 2014

What happened to Global Warming? LMAO

[wxmeddler]

Dr. No strikes again

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I haven't seen a forecast this cold in a long time, maybe since 2014

I think this may surpass 2014 if it holds.

[bncho]

JV GooFuS trend

[blizzardmeiser]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Bastardi is hyping the more western solution of the AIs.  We're in good company.  

If he found an analog from 1943 that mirrors it then I would say it is a slam dunk!

[Conway7305]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's actually better than 6z by a not insignificant amount.

Yep, it did not trend east on  this run.  Actually came back W slightly and rakes OBX.  Still for the fish mostly. Curious to see EPS. 

[Nomz]

We're in fuckin purgatory. Not close enough to get excited, not far enough to not care. Bleh.

[Ephesians2]

Looking at 108h on the 12z Euro, I see:

- surface low 100 miles west of 06z 

- 996 mb on the 12z, 1004 mb on the 06z

Also at 102h, I see a 500mb low that is over 100 miles southwest of 06z, as well as being less positively tilted and better organized.

What am I missing?

Sure it's not enough, and not as good as the runs from a couple of days ago, but I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet.

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

Guess I’ll set up a tee time for Saturday.

Good -you can use the any water hazards as actual fairway since they'll be frozen over! Lol

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

JV GooFuS trend

Nice to have the GFS in our side.  Need the NOGAPS to come around 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I wonder if the higher chance for us is that this thing just shifts north and the ULL snow, that’s currently down in the Carolina’s becomes ours? Haven’t seen that on guidance yet but I don’t think it’s totally crazy

That's the middle ground I've been thinking about. That or the lead shortwave doesn't dig as far. There's plenty enough on the table to keep us interested in tracking some snow in the area. A big bomb has never been likely but some sort of accum event isn't off the table either 

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I wonder if the higher chance for us is that this thing just shifts north and the ULL snow, that’s currently down in the Carolina’s becomes ours? Haven’t seen that on guidance yet but I don’t think it’s totally crazy

Had the same thought it would have far less upside but would be cold powder on top of our glacier