January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

It got 2/12/06 right so you never know.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

Qpf is well less than 1/2".

[Heisy]

Upgraded CMC is good 

This model was really good last week, it had the fulll tpv phase in the medium long range when we were still in the suppression mode.


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[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Wonder how these new models released today check out?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-194409918.html

https://nvidia.github.io/earth2studio/ anyone with half a brain wanna figure this out?

[jayyy]

They showed that Cvill got 22 inches of snow during Sunday. They literally lie about the past and future. I assumed it was just some random model output combination but I'm convinced it just randomly picks the highest possible output and runs with it. Even then I have no idea how it got a short term forecast so wrong when any model had half its amount. Maybe we as a forum should write them an email? Genuinely someone should do something about this

I’m on it. Read above

[jayyy]

 
No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

Oh hell yes

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

https://nvidia.github.io/earth2studio/ anyone with half a brain wanna figure this out?

This is in their example - so they use GFS data. 

from earth2studio.data import GFS

[Heisy]

 
No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

Ji is slacking


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[jayyy]

Ji is slacking


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That’s what the J actually stands for

[Nomz]

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, Nomz said:

FWIW the SPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. 

This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.

[LongRanger]

it's well known the only reason Ji is still here is because he has pics of the mods in bed with the JMA

[NorthArlington101]

This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.

Eh - I think it’s pretty clear where the favored spots are for something like this and that’s all this shows. Maybe we are saying the same thing but I don’t take this as a massive negative. I don’t think there’s enough confidence to have anywhere but the spots that jut into the Atlantic yet… doesn’t mean we’d be out of the game at all.

[MillvilleWx]

22 minutes ago, Nomz said:

FWIW the SPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. 

I’m very happy you showed the Hazards Forecast for the CONUS as it’s a pretty good product for stakeholders to utilize in order to look out for potential weather hazards in the medium range for decision making purposes. 
 

However, just to correct, and only doing this because it’s my office that does it, this is a WPC product, not SPC. SPC is a different office that specializes in severe and fire weather with mesoscale discussions for winter weather created as well. Just an FYI, we are different  

[Bob Chill]

48 minutes ago, stormy said:

Hey Bob!   Good to here from you.   I always admire your common sense knowledge.

You're guidance is well taken.        2 questions

It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal.  Thoughts?

Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8.  It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend.  Thoughts?

 

Globals always struggle with mix lines. They excel at qpf but ptype is often more muddy. This is where forecasters earn their money. Applying historical/past experience and the region's favored climo outcomes can often make sense of this and produce a solid forecast that doesn't mirror any specific weather model output. Hobbiests should do the same. I agree, it was obvious based on soundings and mid level temp panels that the zr threat was overdone the euro. Easy mental adjustment. Models aren't perfect and rarely nail a forecast top to bottom. The nam 3k is unpredictable and inconsistent with qpf output but it's pretty good with thermals. Apply that skill to the euros qpf output and see what happens to your expectations. 

Snow maps and snow output is an algorithmic map and also a new phenomenon. They didn't exist when I joined Eastern wx and they have always been unreliable. They are a good snapshot/data point tool but without applying critical thought they should never be used verbatim as an expectation. In the past we used to (as a group) decide how much qpf will likely fall as snow and create our own estimates. I still do this and will continue. Snow maps are fun to look at but make terrible wives. Don't marry them. Use your brain. 

If you are using the ensemble snow maps at short range and setting expectations then you will often not be correct. Euro AI ens are great upper air tools in the mid range and seem pretty good at qpf in the mid range but when you're inside of 48-72 hours, op runs are the heavyweights by a large margin.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.

They had heavy snow over NC and us for the past storm so it doesn’t mean much. 

[Nomz]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m very happy you showed the Hazards Forecast for the CONUS as it’s a pretty good product for stakeholders to utilize in order to look out for potential weather hazards in the medium range for decision making purposes. 
 

However, just to correct, and only doing this because it’s my office that does it, this is a WPC product, not SPC. SPC is a different office that specializes in severe and fire weather with mesoscale discussions for winter weather created as well. Just an FYI, we are different  

Yep sorry, I'm too used to severe weather. First season going full weenie on the winter weather.

[LeesburgWx]

NAM in range yet? 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

NAM in range yet? 

about 130 ish hours hours out. we're much closer than we were last week when we started talking

[Duca892]

1 hour until GFS rolls. Would really like to see it bring the bomb. 

[jayyy]

1 hour until GFS rolls. Would really like to see it bring the bomb. 

I’ll accept anything from a bomb to a SE miss. No east or NE

[peribonca]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

about 130 ish hours hours out. we're much closer than we were last week when we started talking

yeah but the changes at 500 that Bob Chill was mentioning occur starting around 60h

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, peribonca said:

yeah but the changes at 500 that Bob Chill was mentioning occur starting around 60h

Exactly why I was looking even though I shouldn't be paying it a bit of mind at that range (but you know we all do, lol)

[osfan24]

36 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

JMA has progressive bias sooooo

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Exactly why I was looking even though I shouldn't be paying it a bit of mind at that range (but you know we all do, lol)

If we do care about the NAM, it's worse up top to our NE than 12z. Done looking at it though, so no further discussion lol. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Completely different type of system, though. Although I do feel models tend not to model lows deep enough, which also results in models coming in too southwest. Only from svwx experience though.

We need the same adjustment. If the longwave features adjust west the same way they did last week that energy diving into the Midwest that becomes the storm will trend west also. Right now it’s coming in too far east for what we need. Shift that west and watch. 
 

Do I know it will no. A trend can reverse anytime. But this isn’t significantly more complicated. There is going to be a major wave amplification off the east coast. The pattern argues for it. It’s been identified as a period to watch for a long time. The question is where exactly. We don’t need some crazy adjustment in the phasing being shown. We juts need to shift the whole thing west.  Some are applying the typical miller b thing here but the reason miller bs always fail for us is rarely does the NS dig south enough. That isn’t the issue on guidance right now. 

[StormyClearweather]

12Z WeatherNext looked similar to, though a bit east of, 6Z. No idea on QPF, but shows light snow for most of us from roughly 0Z Saturday > 0Z Sunday.

[stormtracker]

ICON cranking up.....lets see if it makes it up.  Seems a bit too pos tilted so far

[Scraff]

15 mins until the most important HH GooFus run of the winter. LOL. And damn it, I wasn’t going to crack any beers today, but after cleaning cars and shoveling the last remaining several inches of the glacier—a South County Riff Mtn West Coast DIPA was rightfully earned. Let’s reel in this Miller A MoFo!