January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[wxmeddler]

I'll take 1 18Z Euro Please

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Oh my

 

We talked about this yesterday and now Bob C is on board as well. If we get a look like that going into mid month. All bets are off. And it is showing across the ens. This could be our literal Archambault. The nao won't last forever, its going to flip. And when it does we generally cash in. Couple this with a -ao and ridging out west, its easy to see why some of us are lighting up.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Remember what the gfs showed 977 east of Delaware!!

I'm trying to get back to that point

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out.

100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha

Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We talked about this yesterday and now Bob C is on board as well. If we get a look like that going into mid month. All bets are off. And it is showing across the ens. This could be our literal Archambault. The nao won't last forever, its going to flip. And when it does we generally cash in. Couple this with a -ao and ridging out west, its easy to see why some of us are lighting up.

All I'm hearing is next weekend is the appetizer if we can will it back into place like the 18z Euro showed  

[Heisy]

EPS actually supporting the OP

Game on?


.

[Weather Will]

WB AI EPS really shifted west with snow mean for the upcoming weekend compared to 12Z.

[mattie g]

26 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Big change for one run, so need to see the EPS and some consistency at 00z, but we got a man on 1st at least


.

B...b...b...but I thought the Euro never makes big changes from one run to the next!

Been sitting here the last 3-4 runs wondering if what the GFS was smoking 24-36 hours ago would be on sale again. Looks like maybe it is.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EPS

Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west  not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho.

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB AI EPS really shifted west with now mean got the upcoming weekend compared to 12Z.

Strong storms go NW. The HP 1033.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Oh my the euro 500 look! That thing is gonna climb the coast!

[nj2va]

EPS at the end of the run.  Seems progressive/offshore but I’ll let smarter people comment.

[T. August]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Oh my the euro 500 look! That thing is gonna climb the coast!

 

[T. August]

Need it smoking Jacksonville at this point

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

EPS at the end of the run.  Seems progressive/offshore but I’ll let smarter people comment.

Verbatim yeah but I’d say it’s a tick or two more interesting than the 12z ENS. 

[nj2va]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Verbatim yeah but I’d say it’s a tick or two more interesting than the 12z ENS. 

I’d think we need that ridge out west taller.

[wxmeddler]

Ho-Lee-Fuk

[Prestige Worldwide]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Ho-Lee-Fuk

Yeah we can work with that 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS actually supporting the OP

Game on?


.

I wouldn’t sleep on this one. Right now ridge and trough axis too far east, but we said the same thing about today’s threat being too suppressed. Lots of time for things to change for better or worse. 

[jayyy]

Meh, hard to get excited about 360 hours away…..again. We just keep punting to good patterns down the road and striking out. I want to hit next weekend. That’s what everyone was hyping as the big window.

lol, JFC… no one’s punting anything. You just got probably 9” of snow/sleet that’ll stick around for 1-2 weeks with more chances ahead over the coming weeks. I feel like your soul needs a move to New York or something.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west  not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho.

The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Ho-Lee-Fuk

That last image is the eyebrow-raising one. A really nice cluster of lows off the Delmarva and a tight gradient. I'll take it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, CAPE said:

The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.

I agree as we have already witnessed bigger longwave features adjust in shorter time.

[Solution Man]

42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Everybody is not paying attention but when they see this shit

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS actually supporting the OP

Game on?


.

Who is staying up for the 0z euro? 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha

Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again. 

You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected.

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Everybody is not paying attention but when they see this shit

Oh I’m paying attention. I’m just exhausted. 

[GreyHat]

11 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Ho-Lee-Fuk

Nice but remember how this current storm looked before it hit. Keep calm but dam that would cause some serious problems. 

[wxmeddler]

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Nice but remember how this current storm looked before it hit. Keep calm but dam that would cause some serious problems. 

I'm well aware, but when the EuroAI Ens locks in on an idea, *something* is about to happen. Of course details are going to be scant a week out.

[Scraff]

My wife on the phone right now with Southwest asking for tix to anywhere but here. LOL. Sorry woman. You chose this snow nerd. She said we all make mistakes in life.