wxmeddler Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I'll take 1 18Z Euro Please 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, frd said: Oh my We talked about this yesterday and now Bob C is on board as well. If we get a look like that going into mid month. All bets are off. And it is showing across the ens. This could be our literal Archambault. The nao won't last forever, its going to flip. And when it does we generally cash in. Couple this with a -ao and ridging out west, its easy to see why some of us are lighting up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Remember what the gfs showed 977 east of Delaware!! I'm trying to get back to that point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out. 100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We talked about this yesterday and now Bob C is on board as well. If we get a look like that going into mid month. All bets are off. And it is showing across the ens. This could be our literal Archambault. The nao won't last forever, its going to flip. And when it does we generally cash in. Couple this with a -ao and ridging out west, its easy to see why some of us are lighting up. All I'm hearing is next weekend is the appetizer if we can will it back into place like the 18z Euro showed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS actually supporting the OPGame on?. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 WB AI EPS really shifted west with snow mean for the upcoming weekend compared to 12Z. 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: Big change for one run, so need to see the EPS and some consistency at 00z, but we got a man on 1st at least . B...b...b...but I thought the Euro never makes big changes from one run to the next! Been sitting here the last 3-4 runs wondering if what the GFS was smoking 24-36 hours ago would be on sale again. Looks like maybe it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z AI EPS Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB AI EPS really shifted west with now mean got the upcoming weekend compared to 12Z. Strong storms go NW. The HP 1033. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Oh my the euro 500 look! That thing is gonna climb the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS at the end of the run. Seems progressive/offshore but I’ll let smarter people comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Oh my the euro 500 look! That thing is gonna climb the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Need it smoking Jacksonville at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, nj2va said: EPS at the end of the run. Seems progressive/offshore but I’ll let smarter people comment. Verbatim yeah but I’d say it’s a tick or two more interesting than the 12z ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Verbatim yeah but I’d say it’s a tick or two more interesting than the 12z ENS. I’d think we need that ridge out west taller. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ho-Lee-Fuk 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Ho-Lee-Fuk Yeah we can work with that 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: EPS actually supporting the OP Game on? . I wouldn’t sleep on this one. Right now ridge and trough axis too far east, but we said the same thing about today’s threat being too suppressed. Lots of time for things to change for better or worse. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Meh, hard to get excited about 360 hours away…..again. We just keep punting to good patterns down the road and striking out. I want to hit next weekend. That’s what everyone was hyping as the big window.lol, JFC… no one’s punting anything. You just got probably 9” of snow/sleet that’ll stick around for 1-2 weeks with more chances ahead over the coming weeks. I feel like your soul needs a move to New York or something. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho. The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Ho-Lee-Fuk That last image is the eyebrow-raising one. A really nice cluster of lows off the Delmarva and a tight gradient. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, CAPE said: The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out. I agree as we have already witnessed bigger longwave features adjust in shorter time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Everybody is not paying attention but when they see this shit 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: EPS actually supporting the OP Game on? . Who is staying up for the 0z euro? 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 100% agree. Def coastal potential and it's not that far out in time. I'm just pretty skeptical because of my take on the longwave pattern. It's an all or none for areas west of 95 (imo only) but your yard is in the best spot. If I lived on the delmarva I'd be more interested/optimistic. Analogs have been pretty weak on the window so far but they haven't been dire. I'm always paying attention like all the other sick weenies lol. Just not feelin it and want to be wrong hahaha Speaking of analogs... seeing some interesting ones starting to pop up d10-15 including Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. If we get a stable block analogs will prob start lighting up again. You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Everybody is not paying attention but when they see this shit Oh I’m paying attention. I’m just exhausted. 4 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Ho-Lee-Fuk Nice but remember how this current storm looked before it hit. Keep calm but dam that would cause some serious problems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Nice but remember how this current storm looked before it hit. Keep calm but dam that would cause some serious problems. I'm well aware, but when the EuroAI Ens locks in on an idea, *something* is about to happen. Of course details are going to be scant a week out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 My wife on the phone right now with Southwest asking for tix to anywhere but here. LOL. Sorry woman. You chose this snow nerd. She said we all make mistakes in life. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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