January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GFS is a little bit of a hit. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+NAO/-WPO/-EPO's can be icy. 

A strong High holds in southern Canada for a parade of storms on this run of gfs. 

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

Very intriguing run.

[RevWarReenactor]

Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week,  Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

19 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week,  Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun. 

Based on my observations this season in general warmth has trended a little colder this year once we’re inside of 5 days so I’m not mad seeing the boundary modeled a little north. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Like I originally mentioned for the gooning window (27th-29th) a few days back, biggest concern for that time would be suppression or a swing and miss E. Why? 25th system drags in the Arctic air, EPO is on roids, PNA briefly spikes, and there is ridging up top on our side. Was always intrigued with the cold being established for this window and a wave undercutting our pna spike BUT the chance of a ruined snowgasm would be a squashed/suppressed system or swing and miss just too far East. Still feel we are entering quite a favorable pattern even if this particular window fails. Alot to transpire still before this and a chance or 2 the next 10 days.

Eta: just saw the 6z GooFuS and is so close to a big hit but walks the line on a swing and miss (caveats: op run at range etc, but general window still reflected)

 Here are the gefs and eps for reference around this time:

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Just sitting back there chillin and goonin

Cocked and loaded and getting ready to eject.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Just a motherload of cold over us

Getting this in place is part 1. Hopefully we dont have to delay this feature easing to get a hit. But it will eventually happen. Get that cold dome established first, and it looks like we are doing just that.

[aldie 22]

I'll take my chances with temp issues any day out here but it sure does seem like we have a moisture problem. Im going to need to speak to the manager about that 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

Thats what we need! A strong ridge in the NAO will suppress or swing it S and E. A relax in that feature will help us. Heather Archambault event?

[RevWarReenactor]

I don't even know much about the science behind it all, and I am a pessimist, but even for me its obvious the potential is there this year. This year has actually been "good". No shutouts, no endless SE ridge and torch. Its obvious the upcoming couple weeks are our best opportunity in years and if we actually walk away from it with nothing, like PSU said, time for a new hobby. 

[stormy]

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength.  I'm a little surprised that it survived!

And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January.  Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

[Paleocene]

Maybe I'm off base here but I think our biggest indicator is whether or not Bob Chill is posting. He comes when there are legit threats inside 120 hours (or maybe even shorter, 72). Unsurprisingly he hasn't been here the last last 3-4 weeks since the good December pattern ended. If and when he reappears, we're in business.

[mitchnick]

0z Eps and Geps snowfall pattern at 360hrs sure look similar to me. Never saw that before. 

And no detailed dissection of the snowy 6z Gfs? Lol

[mitchnick]

Might have to start taking the RRFS A a little more seriously.  Last night's 0z and the 6z snowfall pattern were near identical to the 0z and 6z Euro. 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

That looks similar to the January 6, 2025 storm, but that storm had a -NAO.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  Best run in years.

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Maybe I'm off base here but I think our biggest indicator is whether or not Bob Chill is posting. He comes when there are legit threats inside 120 hours (or maybe even shorter, 72). Unsurprisingly he hasn't been here the last last 3-4 weeks since the good December pattern ended. If and when he reappears, we're in business.

There is some truth to that for sure. @Bob ChillHope to see you soon. However, if  @Ralph Wiggumis gooning over a time period on a daily basis, we are definitely in biz. Apparently, he’s already cocked and loaded this morning soooooooo yeah. 

[TSSN+]

6z euro had some snow approaching at 144

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+NAO/-WPO/-EPO's can be icy. 

A strong High holds in southern Canada for a parade of storms on this run of gfs. 

Would the -AO help somewhat despite the +NAO?

[stormy]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Might have to start taking the RRFS A a little more seriously.  Last night's 0z and the 6z snowfall pattern were near identical to the 0z and 6z Euro. 

I like the 3k resolution and hourly updates.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would the -AO help somewhat despite the +NAO?

Yeah, that and the ridge over Alaska and the Bering Strait is why there's so much strong arctic High pressure to the north. 

I would love for this to hold. In the last 20 years a heavy qpf storm with really strong High pressure over the great lakes or southern Canada has been really rare. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, that and the ridge over Alaska and the Bering Strait is why there's so much strong arctic High pressure to the north. 

I would love for this to hold. In the last 20 years a heavy qpf storm with really strong High pressure over the great lakes or southern Canada has been really rare. 

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm. 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm. 

This. That’s what @wxmvpete was hitting on as well. Arctic air with overrunning is a recipe for widespread ice.

[Kmlwx]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm. 

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This. That’s what @wxmvpete was hitting on as well. Arctic air with overrunning is a recipe for widespread ice.

Well hopefully it’s south of us and we get the snow lol

[CAPE]

The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture.

 

Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture.

 

Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture.

 

Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.

Nice to see that the GFS Ensemble can see the northern Shenandoah valley precip hole clearly from 10 days out.