January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GFS is a little bit of a hit. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+NAO/-WPO/-EPO's can be icy. 

A strong High holds in southern Canada for a parade of storms on this run of gfs. 

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

Very intriguing run.

[RevWarReenactor]

Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week,  Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

19 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week,  Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun. 

Based on my observations this season in general warmth has trended a little colder this year once we’re inside of 5 days so I’m not mad seeing the boundary modeled a little north. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Like I originally mentioned for the gooning window (27th-29th) a few days back, biggest concern for that time would be suppression or a swing and miss E. Why? 25th system drags in the Arctic air, EPO is on roids, PNA briefly spikes, and there is ridging up top on our side. Was always intrigued with the cold being established for this window and a wave undercutting our pna spike BUT the chance of a ruined snowgasm would be a squashed/suppressed system or swing and miss just too far East. Still feel we are entering quite a favorable pattern even if this particular window fails. Alot to transpire still before this and a chance or 2 the next 10 days.

Eta: just saw the 6z GooFuS and is so close to a big hit but walks the line on a swing and miss (caveats: op run at range etc, but general window still reflected)

 Here are the gefs and eps for reference around this time:

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Just sitting back there chillin and goonin

Cocked and loaded and getting ready to eject.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Just a motherload of cold over us

Getting this in place is part 1. Hopefully we dont have to delay this feature easing to get a hit. But it will eventually happen. Get that cold dome established first, and it looks like we are doing just that.

[aldie 22]

I'll take my chances with temp issues any day out here but it sure does seem like we have a moisture problem. Im going to need to speak to the manager about that 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

Thats what we need! A strong ridge in the NAO will suppress or swing it S and E. A relax in that feature will help us. Heather Archambault event?

[RevWarReenactor]

I don't even know much about the science behind it all, and I am a pessimist, but even for me its obvious the potential is there this year. This year has actually been "good". No shutouts, no endless SE ridge and torch. Its obvious the upcoming couple weeks are our best opportunity in years and if we actually walk away from it with nothing, like PSU said, time for a new hobby. 

[stormy]

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength.  I'm a little surprised that it survived!

And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January.  Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

[Paleocene]

Maybe I'm off base here but I think our biggest indicator is whether or not Bob Chill is posting. He comes when there are legit threats inside 120 hours (or maybe even shorter, 72). Unsurprisingly he hasn't been here the last last 3-4 weeks since the good December pattern ended. If and when he reappears, we're in business.

[mitchnick]

0z Eps and Geps snowfall pattern at 360hrs sure look similar to me. Never saw that before. 

And no detailed dissection of the snowy 6z Gfs? Lol