January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably more like 72 hours and I don't care if anybody comes with that superstition shit.  Around that time we could be talking about 2 separate events.

Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support!

[ravensrule]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support!

Check your jock strap. 

[CAPE]

My storm sucks on this run. There is a bit of a kicker problem- wait scratch that- that was the Ravens.. its a wave spacing issue.

Timing/interplay between the shortwaves is not good. A phase in the Gulf of Maine wont work lol.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Much of how this turns out appears to lie with the inverted trough feature and its location. 12z Euro has it further north than 6z. Would be nice if this was a simple UL low pass with a widespread few inches like you mentioned a couple days ago.

Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked.

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked.

Maybe there is enough time for it to morph into something else?

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Off the top of my head I can’t think of a great analog for this, but I don’t have the photographic memory that @psuhoffmanand others do. I’d guess New England has some experience with these? But you’re looking at a ULL deepening and capturing a surface low basically on top of us. So this is all dynamics driven with strong upward motion. There’s no great moisture feed off the ocean, no WAA or CCB well defined. So I guess we’re looking at where the best lift from the jet streak exit region and the ULL falls? Maybe there will be some frontogen at like 700mb that will produce some of those higher totals? It’s totally a Nowcast. 1-6” would be a reasonable range.

There was that crazy inverted trough deal in early February 2009 that gave localized areas around Lancaster PA 8-9 inches and only light amount just miles away. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right.

MJO forecasts aren’t conductive for entrenched warmth.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right.

The EPS supports this.

[TSSN+]

Ukmet finally ran and I wish it didn’t. Shows nothing pretty much like cmc. So it’s the cmc and ukemt vs gfs and euro 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet finally ran and I wish it didn’t. Shows nothing pretty much like cmc. So it’s the cmc and ukemt vs gfs and euro 

Thankfully it's not the other way around lol

[H2O]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked.

So a typical snow. Cool. 

[mitchnick]

Total Eps snowfall.  

[stormy]

We now seem to have a focus on Thursday/Friday.

As I have said recently, I don't like complication.

There is a near certainty of changes. Some will be happy with changes and some, not so happy.

[Eskimo Joe]

Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event.

One flake to two flakes? 

[stormy]

WB EPS totals Thursday/Friday/Friday

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Total Eps snowfall.  

went down a lot from 00z

[Ji]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Cold is crushing and may kill it. Lol

 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Meh. Warm air winds this run.

someone Met tag him

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

went down a lot from 00z

Not imby. Sux to be you I guess.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

someone Met tag him

Well, I  guess you need to lash out at someone with the HECS rug pull. 

[aldie 22]

Looks like i need to move again 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’ll be interesting to see if we can pull off what the euro is showing for Thursday night.  I feel like we had something similar in maybe 2018 or 2019 where we had a coastal pop like that and we got like 10 inches in dc metro but not much north of here.  I think in that one it was all snow and there was a gap between round 1 and round 2 and then the radar blossomed right over us. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro opens the polar ice box next week. Gimme.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things. 

[bncho]

 Chuck shouldn’t be talking about the NAM until 0z

[nj2va]

I like the look of the NAM at 69…digging pretty good.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things. 

Talk dirty 

[TSSN+]

Just now, nj2va said:

I like the look of the NAM at 69…digging pretty good.

It’s an improvement but not enough 

[LeesburgWx]

How many more improvements can be had before it’s enough? I've been hearing improvement for 48 hours now and still not there