mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Probably more like 72 hours and I don't care if anybody comes with that superstition shit. Around that time we could be talking about 2 separate events. Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Speaking of the second event...it seems the GFS is the only one enthused about it. I mean the 12z Euro seemed to attempt something but it wasn't close. Would like to see some more support! Check your jock strap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My storm sucks on this run. There is a bit of a kicker problem- wait scratch that- that was the Ravens.. its a wave spacing issue. Timing/interplay between the shortwaves is not good. A phase in the Gulf of Maine wont work lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Much of how this turns out appears to lie with the inverted trough feature and its location. 12z Euro has it further north than 6z. Would be nice if this was a simple UL low pass with a widespread few inches like you mentioned a couple days ago. Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, WxUSAF said: Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked. Maybe there is enough time for it to morph into something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Off the top of my head I can’t think of a great analog for this, but I don’t have the photographic memory that @psuhoffmanand others do. I’d guess New England has some experience with these? But you’re looking at a ULL deepening and capturing a surface low basically on top of us. So this is all dynamics driven with strong upward motion. There’s no great moisture feed off the ocean, no WAA or CCB well defined. So I guess we’re looking at where the best lift from the jet streak exit region and the ULL falls? Maybe there will be some frontogen at like 700mb that will produce some of those higher totals? It’s totally a Nowcast. 1-6” would be a reasonable range. There was that crazy inverted trough deal in early February 2009 that gave localized areas around Lancaster PA 8-9 inches and only light amount just miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right. MJO forecasts aren’t conductive for entrenched warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Warm pattern will have a tough time getting established if this pattern at the end of the Euro is close to being right. The EPS supports this. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ukmet finally ran and I wish it didn’t. Shows nothing pretty much like cmc. So it’s the cmc and ukemt vs gfs and euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Ukmet finally ran and I wish it didn’t. Shows nothing pretty much like cmc. So it’s the cmc and ukemt vs gfs and euro Thankfully it's not the other way around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked. So a typical snow. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Total Eps snowfall. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 We now seem to have a focus on Thursday/Friday. As I have said recently, I don't like complication. There is a near certainty of changes. Some will be happy with changes and some, not so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event. One flake to two flakes? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WB EPS totals Thursday/Friday/Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 43 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Total Eps snowfall. went down a lot from 00z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Cold is crushing and may kill it. Lol 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Meh. Warm air winds this run. someone Met tag him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Ji said: went down a lot from 00z Not imby. Sux to be you I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Ji said: someone Met tag him Well, I guess you need to lash out at someone with the HECS rug pull. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like i need to move again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It’ll be interesting to see if we can pull off what the euro is showing for Thursday night. I feel like we had something similar in maybe 2018 or 2019 where we had a coastal pop like that and we got like 10 inches in dc metro but not much north of here. I think in that one it was all snow and there was a gap between round 1 and round 2 and then the radar blossomed right over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z Euro opens the polar ice box next week. Gimme. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Chuck shouldn’t be talking about the NAM until 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I like the look of the NAM at 69…digging pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh brother, NAM about to do NAM things. Talk dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, nj2va said: I like the look of the NAM at 69…digging pretty good. It’s an improvement but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 How many more improvements can be had before it’s enough? I've been hearing improvement for 48 hours now and still not there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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