January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

I'm just trying to just take it as it comes--and also that everything will be fine if it doesn't work out for whatever reason. We've been through enough fails that we know we'll complain for a couple days then be fine. But what we can't do is let our brains start "Yayyyy this is real now!!!" when it isn't yet...it just makes the swings it worse when if/they happen, lol

Alright that's my 2 cents on the psyche side--no more of that 

[Weather Will]

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I'm not seeing much snow potential until the following weekend storm period...about Jan. 9 forward.

[AlexD1990]

I know, its easy to be pessimistic about snow in the area but here’s my HH preview of our radar in a few weeks

Way to put the rain snow line on my house

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[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Way to put the rain snow line on my house

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Wait, is DE part of the forum?   

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said:

Don't I know it. This is why most of us stick to our little thread

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I am battling the Flu today. Been absolutely awful. Just ignore my attempt at humor. Didnt mean anything by it. 

[TSSN+]

31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I know, its easy to be pessimistic about snow in the area but here’s my HH preview of our radar in a few years

Fixed it for ya 

[ravensrule]

40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Everyone goes back and forth too much. It’s easy to stay in the I don’t expect snow side till something actually changes. Been dry, crappy patterns, etc. snow will comes when it comes but I’m not getting excited about a so called good pattern week plus out. 

When we have lost Mitch and Will we’re F***ED. 

[pazzo83]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

That’s what Ji tells himself

lol from the top shelf

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Tomer has a NYC January snowfall poll on Twitter and says his vote is 20-29”. That would bode quite well for us since he also thinks the pattern favors areas south of NYC…

Tomer is a f’ing weenie.

[87storms]

I’d actually be pretty surprised if we don’t end up with a couple decent snowstorms this winter when all is said and done. I’m honestly more surprised at the measly amounts for mby so far given the cold air around. And even more surprised than that, that there hasn’t been a wsw level snowfall while I’ve been out west the last couple weeks lol. Seems like the pattern hasn’t changed a whole lot with the missing ingredient mostly just being a lack of a southern stream/stj.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

One of the worst gfs runs of my lifetime

You say that so much it's lost all meaning.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

I've lost count of how many bourbons and voddy tonics I have had today. Not really that many, but enough.

I think its time for bed lol.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You say that so much it's lost all meaning.

His schtick.

[NorthArlington101]

I’m not looking past the NYD event right now. Anything after that is gravy.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

When we have lost Mitch and Will we’re F***ED. 

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. 

We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. 

We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

Last year the EPS busted so hard on that February storm and that was like 5 days out, I gotta get something to within like 2-3 days to feel any level of confidence. 

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not looking past the NYD event right now. Anything after that is gravy.

I honestly haven’t been following all that much recently, but I gotta say that I’m super intrigued (along with everyone else) by the progged look starting a week or so out. If we can swing a little something before then, then it’ll take quite a bit of the edge off tracking come the beginning of next week.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The mood swings in here really are something. Hard to keep up, I might need to double my martini dose.

I haven't touched alcohol in 40 years and there are days in here......

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. 

We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

It’s going to happen. Don’t sweat it. 

[RevWarReenactor]

GFs is warm wet cold dry. Great patterns have been 2 weeks away for the last 10 years. 

[Ruin]

18 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

GFs is warm wet cold dry. Great patterns have been 2 weeks away for the last 10 years. 

Yep, I get so tired of people saying, oh, the cold is a week away.The cold is a week away, and then it gets pushed back.And pushed back, and then when we actually do get into the cold..Nowhere near is.It has historic as the temperature guidance suggested instead of like being thirty degrees below.Average.It's like ten

[Imgoinhungry]

GFs is warm wet cold dry. Great patterns have been 2 weeks away for the last 10 years. 

Warm wet and cold dry is the new reality for our region.


.

[AlexD1990]

Wait, is DE part of the forum?   

Yuk yuk yuk.

I am battling the Flu today. Been absolutely awful. Just ignore my attempt at humor. Didnt mean anything by it. 

No worries. I hear the flu is bad right now

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[bncho]

You guys bullied the GFS so much that it stopped working. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

You guys bullied the GFS so much that it stopped working. 

It seems to be having a few (initialization?) issues the last couple days or so.

[high risk]

Friendly reminder that graphics updating slowly on someone's website does not mean that there is anything wrong with the actual mode run.

[bncho]

GFS is REALLY close for Jan 4, but it's too far south and there's little cold air to work with. 

[bncho]

Just now, high risk said:

Friendly reminder that graphics updating slowly on someone's website does not mean that there is anything wrong with the actual mode run.

It was stuck on hour 66 on TT, Pivotal, and WeatherBELL for about ten minutes.

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, bncho said:

You guys bullied the GFS so much that it stopped working. 

Gfs has never worked.

[mitchnick]

End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.