January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Wxbear25]

I have no idea what’s happening and why it’s adding random “emoji” things

Tapatalk might be the worst app ive ever used lmao

[Prismshine Productions]

Impressive 12Z! The next 12-24 should be interesting.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/XXamJpX7J6Pn8UxbA

That at 10:1?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

What in the sam hell?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I have no idea what’s happening and why it’s adding random “emoji” things

If you need advice posting from tapatalk consult lava rock. (Or apparently primshine too)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we could slam 10-15” alone from the overrunning if you push that north a bit more. But we’d def need a CCB type sig to get going if you want KU type totals over 20”. 

I don’t disagree, but is that likely? 10-150 would be high end overrunning and then with no coastal assist?

Im not downplaying it, but I’d be hesitant to forecast double digits at the moment. Still a lot to iron out 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, msg112469 said:

Impressive 12Z! The next 12-24 should be interesting.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/XXamJpX7J6Pn8UxbA

I mean its obviously using old data from 6Z because 12Z isnt out yet. If you look at 9Z its exactly the same. 

It's blending models from overnight, mostly 6Z and 00Z probably. Not sure exactly what models they use for that blend but it hasnt ingested anything real from 12z yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

We've entered the matrix

wtf ... are you seeing that too ?

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I have no idea what’s happening and why it’s adding random “emoji” things

Tapatalk might be the worst app ive ever used lmao

why not just use a browser? I never tried tapatalk, i do see it sometimes on here though "sent from Tapatalk."

[TalcottWx]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Decent trends overnight. 
 

we’re going to need some secondary development to truly make this substantial system, IMO.

Without that, you’re looking at a ceiling of like 5-10” as opposed to 10-20”

Dude, what?

[moneypitmike]

38 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Yikes!  The trees that withstood Helene in the NC/TN mountains would be torn apart if that were to verify.

They will explode

[Wxbear25]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

why not just use a browser? I never tried tapatalk, i do see it sometimes on here though "sent from Tapatalk."

Yeah. I’m on browser now. I didn’t realize Tapatalk was so bad, but that’s what I’ve been using to browse so I figured I’d use it to post too

Anyway, as I was trying to say before emoji-pocalypse…

5-10 inches is going to be low-end for most people outside of the far fringe areas

you don’t need a crawling system when you have hellacious isentropic lift dropping fluff on hard-frozen ground

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. 
 

Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though. 

LMAO

We have a current problem on my street here in Ayer where despite the fact that there are no homes/driveways geographically located on the south side of the road,  this town's nimrod dumb ass fucktard keeps plowing from S --> N... 

We come out in the morning and we all have this plowed berm sealing us in with cardiac risks because of this dumb fucker.   I dunno... it's so elegantly obtuse that maybe it's on-purpose?

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I CAN’T LEAVE!!  I have the Busiest Week of the Year with the NAMM Convention through to Sunday!  A Private gig associated with the Games Sunday!  Then a gig Monday!  Then a Major Concert Wednesday.  AND my Parents are getting to the age where they can’t Shovel and you Can’t plow that driveway so I’m always the one to go over and help!

 

 THIS IS A DISASTER if it comes!  

Is winter a surprise there?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Elegantly obtuse

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is winter a surprise there?

We can send @Masswxto do the job but unfortunately his dad told him the pattern ahead is not good, cold and dry, so he is working on his spring training swing already…

[jbenedet]

The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent.

That was the rug pull. 
 

In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution.

The lead wave is a side show. Everything moving to the trailing shortwave for us in the east. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Elegantly obtuse

I mean god! it's so frustrating dude.  I typically don't wish stage 3 reproductive cancer on anyone but this motherfucker is trying my patience -

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t disagree, but is that likely? 10-150 would be high end overrunning and then with no coastal assist?

Im not downplaying it, but I’d be hesitant to forecast double digits at the moment. Still a lot to iron out 

It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

They will explode

I can’t believe there are trees still standing in northern MN

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, MuddyWx said:

Pats in the AFC championship with a snowstorm to track with big potential.. we're back

You know, I made a facetious remark in the fall that our winters have been terrible since the Patriots started sucking. Maybe there’s more of a correlation than I first surmised lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone. 

Yea, probably not insane rates, but will add up.

[tiger_deF]

It's going to be disappointing if we can't crank a widespread 12"+ out of one of the upcoming candidate systems.

We have a persistent, cold airmass in the heart of the season, a ton of moisture with the 24th-26th event, then, according to the GFS, two potential offshore lows that if trends move our way could become quick-hitting nor'easters. Of course I might have just jinxed it with this post but if all goes well we'll be eating for weeks.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent.

That was the rug pull. 
 

In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution.

 

 

 

OH I hear ya!

this has been a trying time for determinism - huge... one of the worst I ever remember.   In fact, I'll just say I think this velocity saturation thing we're seeing in recent winters ( going back several years if not decade(s)) is really presenting challenges in being as 'old school' reliant with teleconnections - and the mass-fields that those numerics are based upon are also unusually unstable probably because the velocity is interfering with resonance.  Things are having trouble setting up... 

Then you get those weird resonances that are superj synoptic.  Like hyper driven to existence.   2015 Feb and dare I say, ... late 2025 Dec with that N. Pac odd-ball block...

There's a large spectrum of behaviors that are emerging that are unusual and a lot of them I think can be mechanically/mathematically shown to be related to the U-component vector of the Navier-Stokes being extended.   Fascinating ... and completely oblivious to anyone reading this sentence ...hahaha LOL sorry

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone. 

Yes I think qpf amounts will tick up .. You are talking 12-18 hours of overrunning snow in an extreme setup, going to be some beefy rates, also if we get a few more ticks north, that will beef up qpf.. Could see this being closer to 1" qpf just from the overrunning. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, probably not insane rates, but will add up.

For the insane rates we need another 100 mile shift north 

[alex]

22 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

That at 10:1?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

That’s quite the gradient around here lol

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We can send @Masswxto do the job but unfortunately his dad told him the pattern ahead is not good, cold and dry, so he is working on his spring training swing already…

I’ll likely be wrong in that regard. I admit. 

[CoastalWx]

Icon looks nice 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LMAO

We have a current problem on my street here in Ayer where despite the fact that there are no homes/driveways geographically located on the south side of the road,  this town's nimrod dumb ass fucktard keeps plowing from S --> N... 

We come out in the morning and we all have this plowed berm sealing us in with cardiac risks because of this dumb fucker.   I dunno... it's so elegantly obtuse that maybe it's on-purpose?

Maybe he moved from Lowell to Ayer?

 

 

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon looks nice