January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

So how cold will it actually be, we think?

I think we could have some days remain in the single digits...key will be delivery here. Airmass is real-deal extreme, however, for NE it's all about the delivery. We need it more from the N or NNW...if it's from the NW or especially WNW, it modifies more.

[ineedsnow]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

6z gfs saves scooter’s marriage and his kids still love him…

That run was nuts lol 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh ... should that 06z GFS run verify, it would go quite some distance in recovering seasonal weather chart dopa hit deficits

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Angus said:

I skied at the Trapp Family Lodge Nordic center yesterday, it was fascinating to watch the snow depth go from a sloppy 6-9" to 28-30" as we skied from 1,350' to their cabin at 2,100'. Beautiful trail network. 

That's a lot of vert for cross country

[512high]

Don't want to tie up other threads, but if I understand correctly, if SAT. event goes more SW towards Keene etc, that opens the door for SUN. event to come more west, or irrelevant?

[Snowcrazed71]

To me, it feels like next weekend is the most legit so far this season. The pattern seems to have more things going in our favor to finally give us some good snows for the majority of us. Feeling good about it 

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

So how cold will it actually be, we think?

It’s way too far out for that. Toss those fantasy maps from yesterday though. We’re not getting double digit below 0s at 18z. lol

If you really want something shattering we’re going to need to be slamming -35C 850s into NE. I don’t trust those d13 uber shallow arctic airmass progs advecting in on NW flow over the mtns. 

[CoastalWx]

Winter is back bay

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter is back bay

To the left to the left, all the torch and dews in a box to the left

[NoCORH4L]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s way too far out for that. Toss those fantasy maps from yesterday though. We’re not getting double digit below 0s at 18z. lol

If you really want something shattering we’re going to need to be slamming -35C 850s into NE. I don’t trust those d13 uber shallow arctic airmass progs advecting in on NW flow over the mtns. 

But if you had to put money on it, what would you say? 

[jbenedet]

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform…

 

I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude…

La Niña and the calendar reigns…

 

Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum.

 

If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during last 10 days of Jan.

 

This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform…

 

I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude…

La Niña and the calendar reigns…

 

Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum.

 

If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during next two weeks.

 

This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well. 

MJO will be flying through phase 7 like you said.  

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

MJO will be flying through phase 7 like you said.  

That interstate 80 region from PA to NY looks like a sweet spot, 20th to month end.

Good time for you to be watching closely.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

But if you had to put money on it, what would you say? 

Well every run and model is flopping around with timing and intensity. The only thing consistent is there’s some good cold shots in the extended. I’d probably lean toward a cold shot that’s on par with the typical coldest of a winter. Up here that would probably be a day that’s like +10/-15. But that’s just spit balling.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Only a couple days above freezing until February. February arrives with a torch which by then will be much wanted.

There’s probably going to be a period of moderation, but I doubt we escape this being one of the colder winters in quite some time.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we could have some days remain in the single digits...key will be delivery here. Airmass is real-deal extreme, however, for NE it's all about the delivery. We need it more from the N or NNW...if it's from the NW or especially WNW, it modifies more.

Think it’ll come in from the NW, which will moderate it some for SNE. A Montreal Express seems unlikely to me right now, but hey, at least next week is really starting to show itself to be a legitimate high potential period. Signals been blaring from a mile away. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform…

 

I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude…

La Niña and the calendar reigns…

 

Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum.

 

If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during last 10 days of Jan.

 

This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well. 

I will absolutely, positively lose it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the late January pattern is south of me, I may honestly get the futility record here if the Feb SSW doesn't produce in March.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter is back bay

Enormous potential, but I'm not celebrating yet, it was just last year we had and epic 2 week stretch modeled with 20" + on all ensembles.. I think 3-6" verified for most over 2 weeks.. 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enormous potential, but I'm not celebrating yet, it was just last year we had and epic 2 week stretch modeled with 20" + on all ensembles.. I think 3-6" verified for most over 2 weeks.. 

At least this pattern looks better and it’s colder. A little more wiggle room than that February look last winter. Doesn’t guarantee anything of course. 

[jbenedet]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will absolutely, positively lose it.

That day 9/10 threat I think that’s big dawg potential for mid Atlantic. Our region can be in on it but I really feel like odds are low north of pike. Best focus around interstate 80.

Of course early but that’s my feel for best threat in view right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

day 9/10 ...which one is that, off of which run cycle...

this stuff is all f'n buckshot right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That day 9/10 threat I think that’s big dawg potential for mid Atlantic. Our region can be in on it but I really feel like odds are low north of pike. Best focus around interstate 80.

Of course early but that’s my feel for best threat in view right now.

I honestly think I am out of here when my family upgrades in a few to several years...the difference in latitude from here to Boston's northern suburbs is absolutely inimical to snowfall. I honestly mean this....it's not frustration talking. You don't benefit from latitude on the CP until into se NE, but you still miss out on some SNE events.

[Typhoon Tip]

oh must be the 06z gfs fantasy.   m'yeah i'd table that whole thing actually.    i prefer when in times of unusually high uncertainty to avoid the consensus passively denying CC is fucking everything up and making it be that way ... by relying on index modes and modalities.

they like the 28th - ground hog day -ish.   there's some signal there re the this 24/25th but not as much, so that's why i table for now.

[WeatherGeek2025]

reggie?

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My joined Eastern on Aug 30th, 2006 and then lurked for a month before starting to post....man, I was a weenie. First winter on here being 2006-2007 was brutal...that was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record in the east" season, and he was pretty close. December may have been the worst I have ever seen.

that was classic remember that like it was yesterday

[weatherwiz]

Just looked at 0z/6z models for second half of the week and holy hell what a disparity. I will say though and I think I mentioned this the other night...that is one powerful Arctic front slated to drop South and I would find it hard pressed not to see at least one major winter weather event impact a large geographical area. I think the biggest question is going to be the timing...does this happen during the second half of the week (similar to the 6z GFS) or does this get pushed back say 2-3-4 days? 

I would definitely watch anywhere from the mid-South into the Northeast.