January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We could use them so we actually don’t finish another year BN in snowfall. Getting weakening overrunning systems and clippers won’t be sustainable for anyone who averages over about 40” per year. 

Ya for the interior for sure.. At this point, only need one good coastal to hit climo along the south coast.. 

[weathafella]

On 12/30/2025 at 11:49 AM, jbenedet said:

Looking more and more like a week-ish of suffering through dry and significant cold to a warm up and cutters. 
 

Then we evaluate if the warmup is an interlude or a new pattern…

This is pope’s post from 2 days ago.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is pope’s lost from 2 days ago.  

Looks good, we pretty much all thought that though on Tuesday.  
 

My point was we still have some lighter threats to track so not dry, and cutters although likely are not guaranteed not sold on warmth 100% yet. 
 

Over this past weekend into Monday, the -NAO  block idea on EPS tricked me, that idea is not happening.  We can all agree that we have to wait to post Jan 12ish for anything significant. 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

thats a bold guess

Well anyone is free to counter my " bold guess"....provided of course it isn't wishcasting..

[WxWatcher007]

Deep deep winter on January 1.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks good, we pretty much all thought that though on Tuesday.  
 

My point was we still have some lighter threats to track so not dry, and cutters although likely are not guaranteed not sold on warmth 100% yet. 
 

Over this past weekend into Monday, the -NAO  block idea on EPS tricked me, that idea is not happening.  We can all agree that we have to wait to post Jan 12ish for anything significant. 

Well, in your defense....you have to acknowledge the development of a strong consensus on guidance....that's what I did over the weekend. I rationalized why guidance was potentially doing that as the lack of coupling between the strengthening Strat PV and troposphere, while acknowledging potential colder risks to my forecast. This abandonment of major blocking makes more sense to me, though.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

It’s moving at exactly the same pace it has for eons and we are 10 days in.  
 

so from a  purely quantitative standpoint, your post is as pointless as it is meritless. 

sensory and perception do not exist.  try thinking before posting

[Torch Tiger]

oof

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Deep deep winter on January 1.

Definitely a wintry look and feel out there today…windy, cold and fresh snow on the pack…January for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s yo-yoing at large scales 

tomorrow we could be right back where we were yesterday 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s yo-yoing at large scales 

tomorrow we could be right back where we were yesterday 

Hopefully today is more correct because that split flow +PNA look retrograding a little bit often does good things. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully today is more correct because that split flow +PNA look retrograding a little bit often does good things. 

I doubt PNA goes away again....hopefully I'm right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

This is pope’s post from 2 days ago.  

Nothing wrong with that. 

[WxWatcher007]

4° here with a -11 WC. Snow guns on full blast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s only 19° and windy, but it didn’t feel too bad in the sun!

Just walked the dog for a bit.    It is most definitely cold but the sun was pretty low. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, in your defense....you have to acknowledge the development of a strong consensus on guidance....that's what I did over the weekend. I rationalized why guidance was potentially doing that as the lack of coupling between the strengthening Strat PV and troposphere, while acknowledging potential colder risks to my forecast. This abandonment of major blocking makes more sense to me, though.

Big credit to your seasonal, you were adamant about the first 15 days of January in early fall and didn’t wavier.  Very very impressive Ray

[CoastalWx]

After the warm up looks conducive to more winter weather. At least it doesn’t look to get kicked down the road. 

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

4° here with a -11 WC. Snow guns on full blast.

Isn't the outdoor hockey game today? Think it's in Florida.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing wrong with that. 

Agreed, it was a good post. A lot of people here owe the pope an apology. He doesn’t sugarcoat things, but whether people like him or not, he knows what he is talking about. I disagreed with him (likely wishcasting on my end, I wanted my seasonal forecast to be right) and called for a wall to wall cold and snowy Jan. I am waiving the white flag on that idea. This doesn’t mean I’m punting the month, but there is large scale cross guidance agreement that my ideas about the progression of Jan will be incorrect. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Big credit to your seasonal, you were adamant about the first 15 days of January in early fall and didn’t wavier.  Very very impressive Ray

I think that is the first positive feedback I have ever received from you.

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After the warm up looks conducive to more winter weather. At least it doesn’t look to get kicked down the road. 

Just in time for your return!  You only missed a good squall.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After the warm up looks conducive to more winter weather. At least it doesn’t look to get kicked down the road. 

The ensemble read off the EPS is a winter storm of sorts signal around 14th followed by a cold intrusion.    

Obviously at 2 weeks lead that highly subject to change - but the 12z read...  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Just in time for your return!  You only missed a good squall.

Seems more like after the 10th or so. 

[Typhoon Tip]

We're getting some 'giga' movements from the ens means at large scales.  It's sort of yawing between a -EPO and a -EPO/+PNA hybrid.  

The -EPO version is the giant warmup ... The operational GFS had a hard-on and went a bit ludicrously extreme at 12z.   

The latter type is colder, faster pattern change but at varying speed/unknown.  

Not sure really which way to go with that.    Like I said this morning and still maintain, we really need to get through this week's demolition of the N. Pacific ridge before we can really truly stop getting head-gamed. 

[Modfan2]

Anyone think tonight’s lows are not accounting for snow? BOX showing low of 12F here, same thing happened last weekend forecasted low of 10F and we bottomed out at 2F

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Anyone think tonight’s lows are not accounting for snow? BOX showing low of 12F here, last weekend we bottomed out at 2F

Probably not accounting for radiational cooling and snow.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Anyone think tonight’s lows are not accounting for snow? BOX showing low of 12F here, last weekend we bottomed out at 2F

Wind don’t care

[brooklynwx99]

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month

however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

[dendrite]

MAV mins for tonight. There’s actually a little WAA overnight too. I suppose it wouldn’t take much to decouple in the CRV after midnight if they can avoid clouds by then. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How are we warm the first 10 days of the month ? I mean beer? It’s in the teens and 20’s for highs thru Tuesday . That’s Jan 6th. Maybe after that a few milder days but to say the first week of Jan is warm when it’s WBN is simply wrong