January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

I just spent time putting together a post that explains ... the recent anticipated emergence of the positive PNA is now in question. 

Paraphrase:  the ensembles means, all three sources, are moving the breakdown of the -WPO/hyprid stuck pattern of the last several weeks, ...more toward a -EPO variant, more so than a +PNA.  That's a change, because the the latter pattern type was signaled for awhile. 

As an aside,  the EPO is not very well correlated to the PNA on the daily.   It is actually correlated to a positive PNA with time lag... So that would imply later on... pushing a +PNA out to latter month.   

There's uncertainly because of the newness of all this.  This was/is based upon rather abrupt changes that arrived slowly over the last 2 days in the GEFs, but then overnight last night, the GEFs surged into this new paradigm ( shown with charts in that post), and it is being joined by the others... etc.  It is inherently a continuity break so - we have to give it some modeling cycles. 

[cleetussnow]

45 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

Yes and this is why seasonal forecasts that simply bias warm every single season are right enough to keep their jobs.  Write of a bunch of baloney about why what enso pattern and weather this and that will cause warm conditions (barely mention climate) and get that champagne ready for the false positive.  If anything the signals of old have decayed in value - why bother.

studies show that if people had a chance to pick heads or tails with money at stake using a coin weighted 60% tails, some people, in fact most, pick heads from time to time.  Going colder is a losing bet anyway just let’s get attribution right in a couple words.  You’ll go broke banking cold.

[dryslot]

Swift kick in the nuts on the 12z Op GFS, Follow the ensembles.

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't see it as being warm verbatim... but it also doesn't seem particularly interesting.  

Everyone's focusing too much on the subtle changes of the different model runs. The general rule of thumb is the step down to a colder pattern as a whole. There's too much what this model says today and what that model says tomorrow. It has been stepping this way for quite some time. It's like chaos in here LOL. 

As they say, TO MANY COOKS IN THE KITCHEN!! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just spent time putting together a post that explains ... the recent anticipated emergence of the positive PNA is now in question. 

Paraphrase:  the ensembles means, all three sources, are moving the breakdown of the -WPO/hyprid stuck pattern of the last several weeks, ...more toward a -EPO variant, more so than a +PNA.  That's a change, because the the latter pattern type was signaled for awhile. 

As am aside,  the EPO is not very well correlated to the PNA on the daily.   It is actually correlated to a positive PNA with time lag... but, that would later on... pushing out a +PNA perhaps latter month.   

There's uncertainly because of the newness of all this.  This was/is based upon rather abrupt changes that arrived slowly over the last 2 days in the GEFs, but then overnight last night, the GEFs surged into this new paradigm ( shown with charts in that post), and it is being joined by the others... etc.  It is inherently a continuity break so - we have to give it some modeling cycles. 

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

[Layman]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm sure by now people are ready to pounce at those difference ...go for it.   But, in the meantime, I strongly suspect the reason the 6-10th period is getting seeming blurred and less coherent as we approach, when in theory is should be getting better, may be tied to these sweeping changes taking place.   6-10th fit the PNA expectation for the last 3 or 4 days nicely.  Above?   not so much.  So there may still be a window ... didn't wanna get into specific event coverage but I will just say, that period is still in the inflection window between the -WPO break down, then this emergence above.  There could be an opportunity in there. 

It's interesting how this kind of experienced assessment seems to be glossed over or simply ignored.  Maybe it's easier to latch onto a "pattern is crap", "warm and dry for the next two weeks", or "worst kind of weather you can get" statement with a quick glance at the models.  The quote above sounds reasonable and meaningfully thought out.  Time will tell how it all plays out over the next few days.  

[Lava Rock]

19 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You are the biggest culprit. Take all your comments ( which are almost always shitting on the pattern we are in ) and put it in the proper banter forum ). You truly bring nothing to the table other than stirring the pot. Plus, you have been wrong so many times with your " This is what the pattern is going to do ". Just don't bother posting. 

Rut ro. Time to get you some Woolfy fangs.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I like this, Kevin.    It's an honest perspective based upon real experience; nicely stated too.    

 

 

It’s almost like Tyohoon Tip got ahold of my phone and penned up a Mark Twain diatribe 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

One would think at some point the cold is going to relax for a bit; when does that happen.

You’ve been saying this for 2-3 weeks…the cold  keeps coming. The cold isn’t the problem this year. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter. 

They always insist…it isn’t snowing due to CC. When that’s so not it. Cuz it’s snowing everywhere else lol.  But ya…silly debate when we’re freezing. 

[bch2014]

As I mentioned in another thread recently, I've relocated. As such, I've taken keen interest in the west coast weather given that, amidst the chaos of the move, my ski season this year won't start till mid-January (haven't missed much this year so far). 

Generally speaking - it seems that New England snowfall is inversely correlated with the Sierra Nevada, whereas it appears much less correlated with the Rockies. This is mostly due to the existence of a Western Ridge being a positive for NE. 

Question for the Mets: What is a pattern (from a teleconnection POV) that is positive for both the Sierra and New England?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

Well ... if it is wrong and a +PNA does take place instead, that would justify setting probabilities.    

I will just say that in my 25 years of these index awareness', which includes observing their correlations both in situ, and over time spans, and how the various mass fields they numerically represent ( teleconnections) then subsequently interact ...etc, I haven't seen a modeled +PNA win as a direct go to very often.  Typically, when in modeling conflict that starts with the PNA, when the EPO arrives in the guidance, the PNA suspends and/or mutes ... 

Again, with time lag... the -EPO collapses and the +PNA then materializes.  All the overnight stuff is doing is telling us that the previous paradigm is not going to go straight into a +PNA...   It is going to go a route that frankly tends to happen most of the time. 

It'll be interesting to see where this goes. 

By the way, don't look at the 12z GFS operational run. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think anyone said it wouldn’t get cold or snow.

You cant dismiss evidence and fact based science as crap though. The numbers are the numbers, they aren’t fake or made up. Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t make them any less real. I think it’s important to point that out.

Again, it will still snow, it will still get cold, but changes are happening.

So if it will still do all these things…then who f’n cares if the temp has increased, or not?  
 

It’s been frigid for two months. Looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future. CC is not the issue why you haven’t had a good snowstorm.

But I’ve had a good snowstorm already. The CT shore has had a couple. So has Cape Cod.  Virginia has too..a few of them. Delaware, NC, Maryland, Chicago, NNE.  All killing it.  It’s just random crazy ju ju, or whatever you want to call it. And that’s that currently. 

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Rut ro. Time to get you some Woolfy fangs.

What are you trying to say???? I'm part of the pack?? Lol

Bring on the fangs! 

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What are you trying to say???? I'm part of the pack?? Lol

Bring on the fangs! 

I always tell people that overselling CC is just as anti-science as denying its existence. People should recognize both of those. 
 

But I’m with @dendrite….this isn’t the time to be clogging up the main thread with this debate. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

I’m confident in a negative PNA month in the means, any positive PNAs are brief In response to incoming trough

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I always tell people that overselling CC is just as anti-science as denying its existence. People should recognize both of those. 
 

But I’m with @dendrite….this isn’t the time to be clogging up the main thread with this debate. 

This actually wasn't about the CC posts. It was about the Pope's posts on always calling for this pattern to be warming up or garbage for any kind of storms. He basically pushes down any kind of threat no matter what. And he's been wrong so many times. It just baffles me that he still posts this crap. Everyone has the right to their opinion, but when he keeps bashing what's happening, that's what I meant when I said to put it in the banter thread. I really think something in his brain is twisted LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This actually wasn't about the CC posts. It was about the Pope's posts on always calling for this pattern to be warming up or garbage for any kind of storms. He basically pushes down any kind of threat no matter what. And he's been wrong so many times. It just baffles me that he still posts this crap. Everyone has the right to their opinion, but when he keeps bashing what's happening, that's what I meant when I said to put it in the banter thread. I really think something in his brain is twisted LOL

So ... curious, why does his posting content matter to you.   You're saying on one hand that everyone's entitled to their opinion, then saying he "keeps bashing"   - that doesn't sound like we are allowing people their opinion.  

It should not and in fact, logically does not matter what the opinion content is when it comes to rendering perspectives about a 3rd party subject; that is also completely virtual, btw.   

[weatherwiz]

I am pretty intrigued in the period of Jan 10-15. But we have a light snow event tomorrow, probably another one in a week, then there could be some room for a bigger storm moving towards mid-month.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Painful reads…some of y'all need to watch Pluribus on Apple TV. 

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Painful reads…some of y'all need to watch Pluribus on Apple TV. 

On my watch list!   In weather related news - it's windy, cold and cloudy outside, but at least the days are getting longer.

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ... curious, why does his posting content matter to you.   You're saying on one hand that everyone's entitled to their opinion, then saying he "keeps bashing"   - that doesn't sound like we are allowing people their opinion.  

It should not and in fact, logically does not matter what the opinion content is when it comes to rendering perspectives about a 3rd party subject; that is also completely virtual, btw.   

Well, you didn't really need to respond to my post just to say this. My point is he's he's entitled to his opinion, but his opinions should be in the banter thread. That's all. Carry on

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, you didn't really need to respond to my post just to say this. My point is he's he's entitled to his opinion, but his opinions should be in the banter thread. That's all. Carry on

which post? There are plenty of posts here that lack much meteorological reasoning behind them. From what I remember, he had meteorological reasoning but it triggered some of the ACATT folks because it went against narrative 

[Brewbeer]

Quote

I vividly remember Al Gore saying it was never going to snow again in New England. 

Al Gore invented lying too?  And I thought his internet invention was impressive ....

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, you didn't really need to respond to my post just to say this. My point is he's he's entitled to his opinion, but his opinions should be in the banter thread. That's all. Carry on

I'm not in response there.. 

I was asking you, a question.   His opinions can be where ever he wants.  

the point is, if you do no like him or his opinions, you have the power to do something about it -   don't read them.  In fact, if it bothers you that much, ignore him altogether.  That's it.  

[Brewbeer]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, you didn't really need to respond to my post just to say this. My point is he's he's entitled to his opinion, but his opinions should be in the banter thread. That's all. Carry on

as a rank amateur who understands little about weather forecasting beyond D2, it's the differentiating opinions, and the "arguments" around them, that I find most informative.   

[mahk_webstah]

Today’s runs suggests that the pope is a seer.  Maybe we can put him up to be canonized as a demon saint