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OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm


jm1220
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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

If CPK got 4.3 this isnt really a bust. Just a low end of the range.

I lived thru busts in the 80s and 90s before we had all this technology in the palm of our hand. You would go to bed expecting snow and you would wake up to grass.

Enjoy it! As someone rightly pointed out, a snowstorm from the NW is a rarity in NYC. Also a rarity (lately) in NYC: a snowy December.

You don’t usually see widespread “clear air busts” anymore these days.  These types of cases where a small sector of the impact region gets screwed is more common vs the entire storm taking a track 100 miles off at the last second 

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30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Really curious to see how this shakes out in the final map. After seeing all the reports this morning above 4" im thrilled that NNJ and NYC should all fall within the 3-6" range. Def gonna have to bring the 0-1 range back in the picture for Ocean Mercer and Monmouth it seems @Sey-Mour Snow

12_26.25_jdj_v3_tri_state_hi_res_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.b11bbcbd10acbf5de5f902221b9f2d41.jpg

Screenshot 2025-12-27 083656.png

Going with 4.5” in Huntington Station. Thanks for everything! 

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45 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

If they are on top of measuring at CPK, I could see an additional few tenths as it’s been snowing steadily for the past 45 mins or so. 

They will measure again at 1 PM but it will likely be compacted by then so I doubt any change 

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We picked up an additional 1.7" of all snow overnight from the back filling that Walt and a few others correctly mentioned, bringing storm total to 2.5".  Certainly, not a typical scenario, but it worked out enough.  I still didn't reach the low end of predictions, although might have if not for the sleet storm at the onset.  All in all this wasn't an epic bust, and it certainly did work out for many other locations.  It was still flurrying here as of fifteen minutes ago, but looks to be starting to clear up now.

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2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

NWS defines a dry slot:  

Dry Slot
A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

The low at 700mb passed north of Lake Ontario. The surface reflection was in NEPA or WNY. There definitely was a dry slot visible on radar/satellite yesterday evening associated with this shortwave in WNY that pushed through the southern tier of NY. As the "primary" weakened and began to redevelop further south, this dry slot began to fill as well. Clearly the best dynamics were north and east of the NJ-NY border. The NAM showed this very well yesterday morning. All other guidance missed how far north (into NY) the surface low would track and how long the mid-level lows would stay defined. That led to the meat of the precipitation arcing from Long ISland, through CT, to ENY. South of that, the combination of spotty precipitation and a warm tongue near 700mb significantly decreased snow totals. Great job by the NAM IMO.

 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if ocean effect can ever produce a real snowstorm (6"+) in this region 

I don't really recall, although I think Long Island does occasionally receive some ocean/sound enhancement?

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I finished with 7-8 inches solid. The snow was wetter on bottom and fluffier the rest of the way, kinda backwards from what was orginal thinking.  

On top of ocean affect snow south east to north west direction, Can't say I've ever seen that ever before...

Great event,  makes up for the crappy event we had last time

 

20251227_050520.jpg

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