Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25

[brooklynwx99]

just a classic post-2016 NYC metro subforum exchange about the RGEM lmao

[eduggs]

For the center of this forum's region, as depicted, the 12z NAM would bring warnings snows, the 12z RGEM would bring an advisory, and everything else that's out (ICON, RRFS) would bring sub-advisory light snow/flurries.

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For the center of this forum's region, as depicted, the 12z NAM would bring warnings snows, the 12z RGEM would bring an advisory, and everything else that's out (ICON, RRFS) would bring sub-advisory light snow/flurries.

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

[Stormlover74]

Ukie looks great

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For the center of this forum's region, as depicted, the 12z NAM would bring warnings snows, the 12z RGEM would bring an advisory, and everything else that's out (ICON, RRFS) would bring sub-advisory light snow/flurries.

Ukie way more amped 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

RGEM is pretty decent as a model-wouldn't discount that.  The NAM is mostly garbage especially at this range.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie way more amped 

LOL Jersey shore rain gotta love it. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

LOL Jersey shore rain gotta love it. 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM is pretty decent as a model-wouldn't discount that.  The NAM is mostly garbage especially at this range.

Ukie is similiar to Nam 

[binbisso]

[jm1220]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

LOL Jersey shore rain gotta love it. 

If you have NE winds off waters in the upper 40s still, that’s a problem for SE NJ. Most coastal storms this time of year have that problem and warm up SE of 95. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anybody saw the CMC?

[snowman19]

I will say this….for a storm less than 2.5 days away, there is ridiculous disagreement with the models. You have the NAM/UKMET in one corner showing a full blown snowstorm. The RGEM I guess in the “middle”, the CMC hasn’t run yet for some reason, but assuming it will look like the RGEM. And you have the GFS/RRFS/GFS-AI/ICON with a minor event. Let’s see what the EURO/EURO-AI does…..

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is similiar to Nam 

Good trends at 12z so far. UK kind of splits the difference between the RGEM and NAM.

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I will say this….for a storm less than 2.5 days away, there is ridiculous disagreement with the models. You have the NAM/UKMET in one corner showing a full blown snowstorm. The RGEM I guess in the “middle”, the CMC hasn’t run yet for some reason, but assuming it will look like the RGEM. And you have the GFS/RRFS/GFS-AI/ICON with a minor event. Let’s see what the EURO/EURO-AI does…..

honestly don't take this the wrong way but why do you have to nitpick everything everyone says.....someone said 3-5 but looking 10:1 it was like 2-4... come on dude give it rest. its a wonder why your a limited poster!!!!!!!!!

[eduggs]

GEFS mean keeps ticking a little "wetter." NYC just shy of 0.2 liquid now.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Good trends at 12z so far. UK kind of splits the difference between the RGEM and NAM.

Cmc more amped

[North and West]

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

Is there a chart on what models seem to matter?

There’s always a seemingly week-to-week change in the rankings depending upon people’s moods and emotional states.


.

[North and West]

I will say this….for a storm less than 2.5 days away, there is ridiculous disagreement with the models. You have the NAM/UKMET in one corner showing a full blown snowstorm. The RGEM I guess in the “middle”, the CMC hasn’t run yet for some reason, but assuming it will look like the RGEM. And you have the GFS/RRFS/GFS-AI/ICON with a minor event. Let’s see what the EURO/EURO-AI does…..

.

[MJO812]

The ratios will be high with this event .

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The ratios will be high with this event .

According to what?

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

According to what?

all levels will be below freezing during the storm!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Euro hr 51, 1031 H in the center of our precipitation lol make it make sense 

[bluewave]

The 12z Euro 2” for NYC would be a nice little event. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

all levels will be below freezing during the storm!

That doesn’t cause high ratios. You want temps between -12 and -18C in the clouds where snowflakes are made which promotes good snow growth, and plenty of moisture/lift in that layer. If temps are higher or lower it will hurt ratios. I remember a few times temps were in the low 20s or even teens but we had tiny sand or needle flakes that were 10-1 ratio.