December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Right where I want it.  Looks like I should be safe from missing something from being down in this godforsaken state. 

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2 

[Ji]

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

And a Merry Christmas to you!

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And a Merry Christmas to you!

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

I hope not for your sake as well.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hope not for your sake as well.

We could become roommates. 

[Paleocene]

Merry Christmas to all. Not much to celebrate on the long range looks at the moment, is there? Oh well

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

[WxUSAF]

Overnight ensembles all show the PAC jet finally extending again early in January. This kills the Aleutian ridge and starts to develop a nice +PNA. -NAO also persists. I’m not punting the next couple weeks by any means, but if that look in the pacific sector is durable, we could get a very favorable pattern going into peak climo around Jan 10.

[yoda]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…?

Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events.

This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

[Terpeast]

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles.

They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. 

And Merry Christmas to all!

[stormy]

MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone...............  I'm happy because I received .21" rain early this morning.  Was supposed to be less than .10"

Gotta run to celebrate with friends and family the rest of the day........ A whole lotta calories.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

"Dead" of winter is a month away.

[gopper]

Not sure we want to use the words "dead" and "winter" together.  lol

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, gopper said:

Not sure we want to use the words "dead" and "winter" together.  lol

I’m thankful it’s at least cloudy today.  At least the sky is white.  

[87storms]

On 12/24/2025 at 8:42 AM, Bob Chill said:

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2 

You’re gonna love it out there and it seems like the western ski resorts are slowly making up ground. Just experienced CO-style weather in southern NV actually. Yesterday was miserable…windy, scattered rain. Today…bright sunshine. Still kinda windy, though lol.

[Weather Will]

Latest EPS extended through early February.  Just need it to deliver.

[snowmagnet]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

January 2010 was a ridiculously cold month with nothing to show for the cold until the end. Then look what happened. 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro showed a chance on January 6th. We should have our opportunities.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

January 2010 was a ridiculously cold month with nothing to show for the cold until the end. Then look what happened. 

That was a Niño. This is a Niña. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest EPS extended through early February.  Just need it to deliver.

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE. 

[IronTy]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That was a Niño. This is a Niña. 

I was watching today's JB Atmospheric avenger video and he clued me in on the WPC's historical map site so I'm going back through all the storms that year and looking at surface features.  Those big storms all just appeared over the Texas Gulf Coast, tracked over the LA coast and up the seaboard.  Seems like a life age since we've seen one of those. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE. 

I'm thinking maybe the numbers they're feeding into the equation are prefaced with these: $.

[poolz1]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

I see no scale on the euro site, unless i am missing something?  I mean, WB is to the 10th of a degree scale.  To me,  the Euro site is just much more broad scale.  Which is probably better when analyzing  a mean temp at range but Wb is probably more accurate if you want to dig into the weeds of a 30 day mean.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I see no scale on the euro site, unless i am missing something?  I mean, WB is to the 10th of a degree scale.  To me,  the Euro site is just much more broad scale.  Which is probably better when analyzing  a mean temp at range but Wb is probably more accurate if you want to dig into the weeds of a 30 day mean.

It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.

The only probability scale that we should be using is the fact that any models forecasting warmth in week 2 or beyond have been wrong this season. Cold has won out since Thanksgiving this year. 
We will have our chances to score.