December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Right where I want it.  Looks like I should be safe from missing something from being down in this godforsaken state. 

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2 

[Ji]

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

And a Merry Christmas to you!

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And a Merry Christmas to you!

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

I hope not for your sake as well.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hope not for your sake as well.

We could become roommates. 

[Paleocene]

Merry Christmas to all. Not much to celebrate on the long range looks at the moment, is there? Oh well

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

[WxUSAF]

Overnight ensembles all show the PAC jet finally extending again early in January. This kills the Aleutian ridge and starts to develop a nice +PNA. -NAO also persists. I’m not punting the next couple weeks by any means, but if that look in the pacific sector is durable, we could get a very favorable pattern going into peak climo around Jan 10.

[yoda]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…?

Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events.

This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

[Terpeast]

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles.

They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. 

And Merry Christmas to all!

[stormy]

MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone...............  I'm happy because I received .21" rain early this morning.  Was supposed to be less than .10"

Gotta run to celebrate with friends and family the rest of the day........ A whole lotta calories.