December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Right where I want it.  Looks like I should be safe from missing something from being down in this godforsaken state. 

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2 

[Ji]

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

And a Merry Christmas to you!

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And a Merry Christmas to you!

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early. 

I hope not for your sake as well.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hope not for your sake as well.

We could become roommates. 

[Paleocene]

Merry Christmas to all. Not much to celebrate on the long range looks at the moment, is there? Oh well

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

[WxUSAF]

Overnight ensembles all show the PAC jet finally extending again early in January. This kills the Aleutian ridge and starts to develop a nice +PNA. -NAO also persists. I’m not punting the next couple weeks by any means, but if that look in the pacific sector is durable, we could get a very favorable pattern going into peak climo around Jan 10.

[yoda]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine.  Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.  

Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.