December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[roardog]

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's in Europe.  

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000

Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.  

Isn’t there actually supposed to be something to that? I can’t remember where I’ve seen that before. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

It's in Europe.  

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000

Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.  

JB says there is a 10 to 15 day lag after Europe gets cold until it gets cold in the east.

He believes the trough will back in from the North Atlantic into the east.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

JB says there is a 10 to 15 day lag after Europe gets cold until it gets cold in the east.

He believes the trough will back in from the North Atlantic into the east.

Let's hope he's right this time!

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

JB says there is a 10 to 15 day lag after Europe gets cold until it gets cold in the east.

He believes the trough will back in from the North Atlantic into the east.

That does happen sometimes if Blocks strengthen. Retrogression. There's been quite a number of Occasions of that transpiring. Thing is, it doesn't always of which is a no brainer. Depends on forcing and resistance.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO stays below 50 on Christmas...

[cbmclean]

10 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Same here.  I don't expect snowy Christmases (or Decembers in general) in the DMV area anyhow.  But a nice, chilly day in the 40s or so is fine, and at least not a washout with rain.  Or where it feels humid as you say!  In 2015 here, we had that ridiculous +8 or so departure for the month (thank God that didn't happen in July!).  It was literally uncomfortably warm and humid after some heavy rain late evening on Christmas Eve.

Now, growing up in northeast Ohio, different story!  Definitely plenty of cold and snowy Decembers and Christmases there which was always great.  Actually I recall one of the most striking reversals in terms of Christmas temperatures.  In 1982, Cleveland set a record high on Christmas of 66 degrees (that was a crap winter all around).  Exactly one year later in 1983, they set a record low of -10, brutal cold and wind all day with some Lake effect snow, temperatures barely got into the single digits for highs.

Sure.  Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches.  But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me.  It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"?  The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence,

Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure.  Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke.  Some years it's SER with a western trough.  This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge.  I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more.

I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold.  But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere.

Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31?  The closest I can remember would be 2017.  It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018.  That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most.  I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period.  And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009.  Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Sure.  Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches.  But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me.  It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"?  The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence,

Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure.  Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke.  Some years it's SER with a western trough.  This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge.  I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more.

I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold.  But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere.

Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31?  The closest I can remember would be 2017.  It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018.  That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most.  I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period.  And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009.  Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It's in Europe.  

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000

Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.  

Congrats. You're the first to mention the possibility of punting til early February. You must be a real blast at parties. 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.

I hadn't forgotten 2022; it's what I had in mind when I mentioned the sharp but transient cold.  Now maybe I'm being a little unfair to it because it wasn't a one-day wonder as most of that week was bitter.  And I enjoyed it thoroughly.  But there was clearly no hope of any storm activity and at the time we knew it was limited duration and we could see the suck barreling down on us like a freight train.  We didn't know that it was going to last the rest of the winter though.  

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Let's hope he's right this time!

To me he's noise at this point when he's discussing cold.  It's when he starts throwing in the towel that I pay attention.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

They are meant for you to look at once a week not every day

LOL

Stupid to call them the weeklies anymore. They should be called the dailies. Or the Euro extended, which they really are when you look at an actual map(ECMWF Ext. Ens). They haven't been a weekly product for quite awhile.

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Congrats. You're the first to mention the possibility of punting til early February. You must be a real blast at parties. 

All the latest extended products suggest that may be the case. Does it mean much? Probably not. The previous runs all suggested a -EPO developing by mid Jan.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I was seeing hints of a -EPO. It’s better than nothing and can work.


.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Sure.  Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches.  But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me.  It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"?  The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence,

Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure.  Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke.  Some years it's SER with a western trough.  This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge.  I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more.

I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold.  But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere.

Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31?  The closest I can remember would be 2017.  It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018.  That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most.  I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period.  And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009.  Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

Heck, even in December 2009 after we got 29'" of snow after the first blizzard, within a week it was a melted foggy mess and there was no snow for Christmas.  I've just come to expect crap winter weather for Christmas in these parts.  

I even spent money to build a mountain cabin retreat with the hopes of my first white Christmas in 20yrs.  Maybe next year...I'm planning on cruising around the logging roads on my '69 Honda Trail 90 next week.  

One Christmas not that long ago my wife and I were backpack camping at 4k ft in Dolly sods....in t-shirts.  The mid Atlantic just sucks for Christmas.  Might as well embrace it and buy a hot tub.  

 

Counterpoint, two Christmases ago we were camping up on our mountain property and it was -23F in the tent and the windchill was 40 below.  But still no snow.  

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO stays below 50 on Christmas...

I'll consider that a victory.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Congrats. You're the first to mention the possibility of punting til early February. You must be a real blast at parties. 

 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

All the latest extended products suggest that may be the case. Does it mean much? Probably not. The previous runs all suggested a -EPO developing by mid Jan.

Well, all I said was cold/BN without referring to snow. I think we all know it can still snow in an AN temps regime, just harder generally speaking. The fact is, however, we just went through a well BN period with most just squeaking out light total snowfall numbers save those in the central/southern VA locations. So "no", I didn't say we should punt anything.  Simply that Europe is in line for BN temps on today's weeklies and that may rotate over the the Conus around the end of the month if history repeats as in the fall. 

The problem is Ralph, you were just dying to say that people are now punting January. My guess is, you were, in fact, the one thinking on punting January. 

[87storms]

3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Sure.  Living in NC my whole life I'm no stranger to Christmas torches.  But the consistency of the late December torch is beginning to be very troubling to me.  It seems to be getting beyond the point of bad luck and to the point, "is there something going on here"?  The beginning of the month has been variable: some years are torches, some years have been quite cold (like this year), but some point between 12/1 and 12/15 we see a bad look appear at 384 and march majestically through to validation and the entire holiday period is spent squinting at model noise trying to will a flip into existence,

Interestingly it hasn't been the same mechanism of failure.  Some years it's an AK trough bringing Pac Puke.  Some years it's SER with a western trough.  This year is more of a NW trough with a CONUS-wide ridge.  I guess the common thread is the Pacific but the variance makes me wonder even more.

I will admit that the bad periods have also not been monolithic: several have had notable sharp frontal passage with non-trivial cold.  But in every case I can think of, the cold has been either transient, or completely surface-based, with no support in the higher portions of the atmosphere.

Honest question to everyone: when is the last time anyone can remember when we had a good, or even "pretty good" pattern either in place or imminent between 12/20 and 12/31?  The closest I can remember would be 2017.  It turned cool on Christmas and then ended up bitterly cold the last few days of the year and the first few days of 2018.  That was great for cold lovers (like me) but still not a snow pattern for most.  I think even 2013 had a mild holiday period.  And I recall many of you bemoaning the cutter that washed away your snowpack in 2009.  Are there any good holiday patterns that I am missing?

The most concerning thing to me is the lack of region-wide snowstorms (not this nickel and dime, hit or miss stuff).  It’s become a thing.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

LOL

Stupid to call them the weeklies anymore. They should be called the dailies. Or the Euro extended, which they really are when you look at an actual map(ECMWF Ext. Ens). They haven't been a weekly product for quite awhile.

They’re still called Weeklies because that is based on their own extended maps being for one week at a time, not based on their release frequency. 

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run/extended EPS mean was the warmest run yet this season for the E US overall.

 Today’s extended GEFS doesn’t look much better for the E US its entire run if you prefer cold (like I do).

 But obviously I’m hopeful they will bust badly! A year ago at this time, they were cold for the E US and NOAA’s weeks 3-4 products were about the coldest on record for the SE US. I was posting a lot about those outlooks as well as the cold Weeklies and was very excited. What a difference a year makes!

 They often have a decent clue as to the general upcoming pattern. But not always. So, we’ll see.

[GaWx]

 As I said, a year ago at this time the NOAA weeks 3-4 maps were quite cold looking (strongest cold signal in SE quadrant on record since this product started being issued) and they obviously verified quite well (although to be fair these aren’t actually forecasts):

 

OTOH, 4 years ago at this time (when many E US posters’ tones on the wx boards were similarly gloomy) they were similarly mild looking to yesterday’s for much of the E US, which turned out to be “wrong”:

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

The most concerning thing to me is the lack of region-wide snowstorms (not this nickel and dime, hit or miss stuff).  It’s become a thing.

And not just snow storms.   It's any storm.

[GaWx]

What the???

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And not just snow storms.   It's any storm.

Guess we are on a break.  Pretty epic start to winter however. It was cold.  Saw some snow.  I got nothin’

[dailylurker]

The big story were all missing is the drought. The local creeks are drying up. The Potomac is super low. The lowest I've ever seen it. We just can't buy a storm or rainy day. Cold and dry to warm and dry. The next 10 days looks warm and dry. Basically the opposite of last January (cold/dry). 

 

[Ji]

Still a window

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Still a window

Yeah that continues to be the period to keep an eye on. Various op runs have had a snow/mix event for the MA/NE the last few days. Weakish signal on the Ens runs.

[Ji]

Yeah that continues to be the period to keep an eye on. Various op runs have had a snow/mix event for the MA/NE the last few days. Weakish signal on the Ens runs.

We can’t seem do get out of this liquid drought. Stj has been dead for months

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

We can’t seem do get out of this liquid drought. Stj has been dead for months

Years

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Years

Is this year 3 of drought? Before this dry period it was wet for a few years but that didn't help snow totals lol

[Terpeast]

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though. 

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Is this year 3 of drought? Before this dry period it was wet for a few years but that didn't help snow totals lol

Even our brief Nino a couple years ago didn’t seem to really get the STJ going for any amount of time. Hopefully next year’s will