December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

Its time for snow.  And cold.  But mainly snow please 

[yoda]

 

 

[bncho]

The December to remember or the usual crap? Find out on this month-long special of Weenies Hope for Snow!

[WxUSAF]

LFG

[stormy]

Many times my first acc. snow has been around Dec. 5.

[CAPE]

Need the cold to get the snow. 

[LongRanger]

Killington and Stowe have opened for skiing. May the snow soon come a few hundred miles south.

[87storms]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

The December to remember or the usual crap? Find out on this month-long special of Weenies Hope for Snow!

We do December snow about as well as DC does sports.

[CAPE]

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

Lay that base down 

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

Yeah probably some good chasing opportunities.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8.  Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4.

[MN Transplant]

The airports average 1-3" of snow for December, so expectations should be in check.  It is our fourth snowiest month.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8.  Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4.

I see +NAO/-PNA

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I see +NAO/-PNA

Seems like guidance is really struggling with the Pacific pattern in early December. There will be some very cold air somewhere in North America. Not much more is certain yet.

[Weather Will]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I see +NAO/-PNA

I think an amped storm brings us rain during this period.  But a 2-4 incher could be in the cards if the timing is right especially for NW zones.

[Benjamn3]

Really need to stave the expectations. The long range looks decent/temps around climatology. Which aren’t the greatest for snow, ( 12-4 12-5 really spoiled us back in the day). The way things are these days I call that a win, I love Christmas, and I absolutely hate one where I’m wearing a T-shirt and hopefully that’s not the case this year. It can be bone dry and cold and I’d be happier than a pig in shit. 

[Terpeast]

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive. 

>>

For comparison. 

 

 

>>

 

 

 

[frd]

From  https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858

Seems very reasonable. 

Third week of December looks good.  

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

Just now, frd said:

>>

For comparison. 

 

 

>>

 

 

 

Yeah, gefs is slower and stronger going into 7, but I don’t really pay attention to what happens after that (the purple part) - too far out to have any real skill. But the gefs hollmover shows forcing weakening over the MC and moving east quickly through the pac basin past the dateline over the next week, and then cycle back to 6-7-8 soon after. 

[frd]

 

Interesting AO forecast. Lots of spread, and not like the last two years.

The strat warming( CW )  not influencing the AO, by a lack of coupling. As mentioned later in this post,  in 1958 and 1968 they did couple but several weeks later.  

 

 

Giuseppe Petricca     @gmrpetricca  47m

Today's zonal GPH chart gives us a good example of uncoupled/limited coupling tropo-strato in the forecast. Strong stratospheric anomalies are present in the 10–50 hPa layer (and above - red rectangle), but below 100-200hPa, the situation is different, with limited vertical coupling (blue rectangle).

 

While the stratosphere maintains a persistent positive anomaly pattern, at least until towards the end of the run, these signals do not propagate downward in a way that would typically influence lower-level circulation (for example, look at the orange/red anomalies back at the start of October,

where they covered the entire column).

 

In the troposphere, anomalies remain more variable and horizontally confined, indicating that the two atmospheric levels are acting more or less "on their own".

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, frd said:

From  https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858

Seems very reasonable. 

Third week of December looks good.  

 

 

 

January will deliver guaranteed 

[Spartman]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

January will deliver guaranteed 

December's looking bad according to today's CFS v2 weeklies.

[Blizzard of 93]

Plenty of cold available on today’s Euro Weeklies from week 2 through 6.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, Spartman said:

December's looking bad according to today's CFS v2 weeklies.

JFC I hope that's wrong.

[JenkinsJinkies]

ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out.

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out.

It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening. 

I mean are they wrong through (at least with December)? We've seen time and time again that when a SER establishes itself it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage and have a winter weather chance again.