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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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The 10th/11th doesn't have sturdy legs under it from the indices, but the 8th does.   its interesting.. as obviously the intriguing curvatures are hourglassing the flow more so for that latter of the two.  

It appears the hemisphere is attempting to slip back into an N. Pac favorable pattern after having relaxed for the last 5 days.  I'm seeing the WPO is in -delta. The progs from all major ens systems are almost as low as it was 2 to 3 weeks ago.    The EPO appears to be completely restructured into a hefty NVA up there and this seen in the spatial layout of the EPS and all of them really, with high coherence.  I showed that chart around mid month above...  

These don't really correlate well with a +PNA at first, and that does nicely ( statistically) explain why the PNA does goes below neutral later next week after Monday's minoring spike.  

I think this sets the stage for a very cold 10th to Solstice...  When the WPO has a modest negative correlation with the PNA, which connotes -WPO eventually subtends to +PNA given time; to some varying degrees of either.   -WPO with a alternating EPO and balancing +PNA intervals is    

fuck it ...no one's following this.  look it's going to be a lot colder between the 10th and the 20something than we were led to think this time last week.   snowier too follows

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