December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Jan 98:  Southern PQ, northern VT/NH, central/Downeast Maine and into NB - catastrophic ice.  Perhaps the country's most widespread ice storm disaster.
Meanwhile, Allagash was 10° with S+ (Aroostook totaled 18-27") and NYC had 60 with RA.

Light snow here, 20-21°, approaching 1/2".

Drive up to Aroostook a couple days after…the ice on the way up was immense in central areas.  And yes, that’s why we went up…the northern part of the county was buried.  It was a scene for sure. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro advertises some hang back moisture along coast/Cape Sunday evening, might be ocean enhanced as the low strengthens offshore

[weatherwiz]

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing is still 3.5 days out …you don’t think there’s enough time to trend this a 100 miles? Geez Paul, I think we all know that’s very doable at this juncture for sure. But maybe you’ll be right? Gonna be a fun couple days seeing how this turns out. 

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. 

Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east. 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Drive up to Aroostook a couple days after…the ice on the way up was immense in central areas.  And yes, that’s why we went up…the northern part of the county was buried.  It was a scene for sure. 

Drove up to Jay Peak just brutal

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro advertises some hang back moisture along coast/Cape Sunday evening, might be ocean enhanced as the low strengthens offshore

It's very cold on the backside of the system so there def could be some ocean enhancement on N or NNW winds. 

[George001]

I’ve seen these types of events surprise. It’s a progressive setup but these quick hitters can pack a punch when things break right. Often when that does happen we don’t expect it, and it happens in the very short range. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. 

Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east. 

Fair enough.  We’ll see how this unfolds. 

[dendrite]

Snowing pretty well now.

27.2°

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's very cold on the backside of the system so there def could be some ocean enhancement on N or NNW winds. 

If one wants to make inferences. The first 10 days of Dec are already colder than any entire month since IJD ASOS was commissioned in 1997. Bodes well for the rest of winter if these are analogs 

First 10 days and month

2002-12-10	20.9	0
2	2000-12-10	24.4	0
3	2003-12-10	26.1	0
4	2025-12-10	26.6	1
5	2007-12-10	27.3	0
6	2005-12-10	28.0	0
7	2010-12-10	29.4

23	2007	30.7	0
24	2013	30.2	0
25	2002	28.8	0
26	2010	28.7	0
27	2017	28.3	0
28	2005	27.9	0
29	2025	26.6	22
-	2000	26.6

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty good trends today too on EPS for the Xmas period....notice how much lower the heights are in SE Canada....this is kind of what we saw in clown range on the OP run where there was a lot of ridging over CONUS but we were staying colder due to the lower heights in SE Canada. That's a trend you'll want to see keep up as we get closer if you are looking to avoid macaw parrots for Xmas. 

 

 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

emojis be hurting feelings…

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good trends today too on EPS for the Xmas period....notice how much lower the heights are in SE Canada....this is kind of what we saw in clown range on the OP run where there was a lot of ridging over CONUS but we were staying colder due to the lower heights in SE Canada. That's a trend you'll want to see keep up as we get closer if you are looking to avoid macaw parrots for Xmas. 

 

 

 

 

High heights but wedged . Ice ice baby 

[moneypitmike]

What's equally funny about the melts is that we get one run of models that shows snow and suddenly all is forgotten, and it's like we live in the Northwest Territories with cold and snow all the time.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What's equally funny about the melts is that we get one run of models that shows snow and suddenly all is forgotten, and it's like we live in the Northwest Territories with cold and snow all the time.

...and then everyone is friends again

[tamarack]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Drive up to Aroostook a couple days after…the ice on the way up was immense in central areas.  And yes, that’s why we went up…the northern part of the county was buried.  It was a scene for sure. 

At the time of the ice storm, we lived about 2 miles southeast from where the Maine Turnpike merges with I-295.  Had ice 1.5"-1.75" and more damage on our 0.8-acre house lot than on the 62 acres of woodland where we've lived since May of 1998.  Much of the precip there bounced rather than stuck.  The greatest accretion I saw was on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, about 10 miles NW from @Dryslot.  Over 2.5", first-year twigs had ice the size of a Pringles can.
The most amazing fact to me, even beyond the NYC/Allagash difference, was the NH "sandwich".  While Gorham was nearly all rain and MWM was setting a new record high temp for January, in between at ~1500-2500 elev. it was total disaster.  When I first saw that the following summer, I thought it was clearcuts.

[SouthCoastMA]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

emojis be hurting feelings…

smiling poop is the new sticks and stones

[mahk_webstah]

Nothing in Concord, but up here in Boscawen snowing quite hard roads covered, and the temperatures down to 28.

[dendrite]

27.5° -SN

3/4”

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

27.7°, light/moderate snow, 1.5" new. Pleasantly surprised. Nothing was happening at all in Concord when I left a little over an hour ago.

[DavisStraight]

Im at 36 with light rain, have to go inland a bit to find frozen.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

27.7°, light/moderate snow, 1.5" new. Pleasantly surprised. Nothing was happening at all in Concord when I left a little over an hour ago.

 Maybe another 0.10-0.15” to go too. So 1-2” on top of this.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

 Maybe another 0.10-0.15” to go too. So 1-2” on top of this.

I don’t know man. Looks like there’s a back edge over western Merrimack County. But it is a pretty efficient accumulator. I’m probably just under an inch now.

[dendrite]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I don’t know man. Looks like there’s a back edge over western Merrimack County. But it is a pretty efficient accumulator. I’m probably just under an inch now.

It’s still all the way back to Albany. It goes til midnight. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z icon looks like dung 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z icon looks like dung 

welcome back

and yes, it does

[CT Rain]

84h NAM still looked like it could be fun with that shortwave. 

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z icon looks like dung 

First of all, it's the 18z run, second of all, it's the icon't!!!

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s still all the way back to Albany. It goes til midnight. 

Oh, that just must be a gap then. This was forecasted as recently as this morning to be a change over to rain, but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. Turning out to be a good little refresher.

[bristolri_wx]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z icon looks like dung 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

84h NAM still looked like it could be fun with that shortwave. 

NAM would prob be a little Nuke