December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[EastonSN+]

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

There is an extreme cold pool over western Canada and all of Canada has deep snow cover.  This cold pool will not modify anytime soon.

Get some of that on a favorable trajectory over snow covered ground and it could get seriously cold around here as we move toward or through the first 10 days of January.   

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

Interesting look

[cleetussnow]

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

[Nibor]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

Fun to look at. 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching.   Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal.  Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area.  We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year.

Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold.  EURO going full bore.

[WestBabylonWeather]

43 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Yea I was expecting +20 today not snow. 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching.   Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal.  Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area.  We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year.

Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold.  EURO going full bore.

19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts

If it wasn’t for the strong -NAO, then record ridge across the Southern Plains would have expanded closer to our area.

 

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Stratospheric warming events happened

[uofmiami]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If it wasn’t for the strong -NAO, then record ridge across the Southern Plains would have expanded closer to our area.

 

Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise.   So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO.  Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead.  Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise.   So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO.  Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead.  Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month.

Why didn’t the block link up with the SE ridge this time @bluewave

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Why didn’t the block link up with the SE ridge this time @bluewave

I think the -wpo didn't help

 

[donsutherland1]

A weak system brought some light snow to the region. Snowfall amounts included:

Armonk: 3.2"
Bridgeport: Trace
Islip: Trace
Middletown: 5.0"
New York City: Trace

The snowfall in New York City was in line with historical data for systems with low temperatures above freezing. In New York City, only 25.6% of storms had seen measurable snowfall with a daily low of 33° or above with just 9.2% seeing 1" or more snowfall. Almost three-quarters (74.4%) of such events saw only a trace of snowfall. Today had a low temperature of 35°. 91.4% of snow events with a minimum temperature of 35° or above saw a trace of snow.

Another system could bring precipitation on Friday into Saturday. This system could be a more substantial system with the potential for a plowable snowfall in the New York City region.

No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter. Nevertheless, the closing days of December will likely be colder than normal.

December 2025 will likely finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.312 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.0° (5.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[wthrmn654]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Let's not forget 7 years of rain on new years

[MJO812]

Gfs has temps in the 20s for the ball drop in times square and then teens on NYD night in NYC and colder in the burbs  

Complete cave by the gfs to the euro . Very cold air to begin January with a big PNA ridge. Massive NAO block.

[Euripides]

Brrrrrrrr.

Find Beeks for the report on the orange crop yields from the cold, and we can make a fortune 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has temps in the 20s for the ball drop in times square and then teens on NYD night in NYC and colder in the burbs  

Complete cave by the gfs to the euro . Very cold air to begin January with a big PNA ridge. Massive NAO block.

I feel as if NYE is always 20 or 55, no in between, at least since my memory goes back

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel as if NYE is always 20 or 55, no in between, at least since my memory goes back

It does seem that way. Last year it was 50s and raining

[SI Mailman]

57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I feel as if NYE is always 20 or 55, no in between, at least since my memory goes back

New Year's Day 2018 was cold as hell.  Froze my ass off at CitiField for the Rangers-Sabres Winter classic.  Ball drop had to have been in the single digits.  We got a nice blizzard 3 days later.  

[MJO812]

Gfs for NYD

[MJO812]

Brrr

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Brrr

The question now is after like 1/4 do we see a 7-10 day reset again or will models again be wrong 

[eduggs]

The 0z CMC actually has ice ending as a little snow for Monday the 29th. This model was already the coldest for this event and it shifted even colder. Unfortunately it has close to zero support amongst the other ensembles. Then again, the thermal boundary has repeatedly trended colder in the mid-range recently...

[SnoSki14]

Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter.

Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. 

If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance 

[bluewave]

On 12/23/2025 at 4:30 PM, uofmiami said:

Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise.   So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO.  Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead.  Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month.

The ensemble mean forecasts always kept the warmest to our SW which isn’t a surprise. But the 26th through the end of the month will verify several degrees colder. 

The warm up during the 17th to the 25th did beat expectations on the warmest few days which has been a common occurrence since 2011 and even prior to that.

The -NAO is actually linking up with the Southeast Ridge this weekend which wasn’t originally forecast.  You can see how much the models changed for Saturday from the earlier runs. But the cold high over New England is leading to a colder and snowier solution for a change.

The last few years when this happened featured warmer storm tracks due to the lack of a cold high over New England. 

New run more -NAO linkage with Southeast ridge for rare favorable solution

Old run Southeast ridge and -NAO separate 

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

this morning has a weird feel to it weatherwise. there’s snow on the ground with a stiff wind, but its a warm wind.

 

42F

[EastonSN+]

15 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Warmth stayed S&W, no surprise.   So much for the Scand block linking up with the SE ridge for a blowtorch over us as it transitioned to a -NAO.  Got a quick warm shot the 18th & 19th, similar to late November instead.  Looks like -5 departure from normal for the month.

The SE Ridge linking to the -NAO has always occured, however a MET previously stated that we will still snow if we have a 50/50 low present. Likely what happened a lot 1970 through 1989.

[SACRUS]

43 / 24 - 48 hour warmup and now in what is a sea of chill.  Friday (boxing day) storm a moderate snowfall. Then a miz/rain on the 29th with a storm threat between 30 - 31 - ist.  Very cold in the 12/31 - 1/4 period.  beyond there some moderation but remaining overall colder than normal as it appear now.

 

[SACRUS]

Members

 14.1k

Location:NYC-NJ

Posted December 24, 2024

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  71 (2015)
NYC: 72 (2015)
LGA: 72 (2015)
JFK: 69 (2015)


Lows: 

EWR: 3 (1983)
NYC: 6 (1983)
LGA: 4 (1983)
JFK: 5 (1983)

 

Historical:

 

1851: The Library of Congress caught fire. About 35,000 of the Library’s 55,000 volumes were destroyed.

1796: A famous cold day was felt at Cairo, IL where the temperature fell to -8 and in Kentucky where the mercury fell to -13. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers were frozen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1836: An intense cold wave drove the temperature down nearly 40 degrees in 10 hours at Fort Snelling, MN to -28 °F by Christmas morning, one degree shy of 1822's record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1868: A severe freeze occurred at Jacksonville, FL when the temperature dropped to 20 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1872 - Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis MN reached 38 below. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1879: It was a frigid Christmas Eve at Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada as the temperature fell to -54 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1924: In Fairfield, Montana, the temperature once dropped 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63 °F at noon on December 24, 1924 to -21 °F by midnight that same day, the record for a 12 hour temperature change. (Extreme Weather p. 68, by Christopher C. Burt)

1955: It felt anything like the eve of Christmas and within the first few days of winter as much of the southern Plains, deep south to the Tennessee Valley reported record highs. Records for the month of December included: Waco, TX: 91 °F, Abilene, TX: 89 °F, Dallas (Love Field), TX: 89 °F (broke previous daily record by 13 degrees), Dodge City, KS: 86 °F (broke previous daily record by 20 degrees), Oklahoma City, OK: 86 °F (broke previous daily record by 17 degrees), Wichita, KS: 83 °F (broke previous record by 20 degrees). (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Temperatures Given)

1961: (24th-25th) 20 inches of snow fell on most of MA, giving the greatest Christmas snow depths in many years. Hundreds of cars abandoned on drifted roads from W Boston suburbs to Worcester. 100 people in snowbound cars in Holden area rescued by State Police. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1963: At 0326 CDT on December 24th, 1963, a new all-time low for Memphis occurred with a reading of -13°F. The record still stands today.

 

1968: The crew of Apollo 8 took this photo, later dubbed “Earthrise,” on December 24th, 1968. During a broadcast that night, pilot Jim Lovell said: “The vast loneliness is awe-inspiring, and it makes you realize just what you have back there on Earth.”

1970: On December 22nd through December 24th 12.7 inches of snow fell over the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1982: The "Blizzard of '82" blasted eastern Colorado with 18 to 34 inches of snow. Akron was buried under 28 inches of snow. Denver recorded 23.6 inches of snow in 24 hours to set a new all-time 24 hour snowfall record. Winds gusting to 60 mph whipped the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts. All highways leading out of Denver were closed and Stapleton International Airport was closed for 33 consecutive hours as visibilities fell to a quarter of a mile or less for 17 consecutive hours. Laramie, WY picked up 18.2 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )
 

1983 - The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT, to establish a record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre MT with a reading of 50 below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - A four day seige of heavy rain began in the south central U.S. Flooding claimed four lives and caused millions of dollars property damage. Western Tennessee was drenched with up to fourteen inches of rain in two days. Total rainfall exceeded twelve inches around Memphis TN, and the heavy rain and subsequent flooding added insult to injury to victims of the West Memphis tornado on the 14th of the month. Little Rock AR experienced their wettest December day of record with 5.01 inches of rain. West Little Rock reported 10.20 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms developing along a cold front spawned a powerful tornado at Franklin, TN, which killed one person, injured seven others, and caused eight million dollars damage. Another in a series of winter storms in the western U.S. produced 20 inches of snow at Blue Canyon CA in 24 hours. Bishop CA received 14 inches of snow in just six hours, and Redding CA, which averages three inches of snow per year, was blanketed with ten inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West FL equalled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami FL was an all-time record for that location. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996" The temperature at Central Park in New York City soared to 63 degrees, tying the record high at the time (2015 surpassed)  temperature for the date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2001: Buffalo, NY had gone through the entire month of November without any snow, the very first time in history that had occurred. But the city would make up for it on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as 25.2 inches of snow fell in just 24 hours, the 3rd highest 24 hour snowfall for the city. The new record would fall just two days later when 29.6 inches of snow fell between 7 PM on the 26th and 7 PM on the 27th. 82.3 inches of snow fell during a 5-day period, almost as much as the city normally receives in an entire winter season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History )

 

2004: An extremely rare snowstorm impacts southeastern Texas on this day. Corpus Christi International Airport officially measured 4.4 inches from this event. This was their second white Christmas ever recorded in Corpus Christi. The other white Christmas occurred in 1918 when 0.1 inches was reported.