December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Stormlover74]

Nam has some mood flakes/ pellets Christmas day

[bluewave]

While the week 2 forecasts have been running too cold from all the ensembles, the first week of January may be the coldest shift of them all so far.

New run

Old run

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the week 2 forecasts have been running too cold from all the ensembles, the first week of January may be the coldest shift of them all so far.

New run

Old run

Looks like they have been useless or worse over the past 90 days.  Basically the opposite pattern of the 11-15 means was realized.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Looks like they have been useless or worse over the past 90 days.  Basically the opposite pattern of the 11-15 means was realized.

Same with the GEFS and GEPS. I posted this in the main ENSO thread. In order to get really cold these days we need some kind of record warmth in the Arctic.

If we can just get the storm track to shift south to a benchmark position in January, then maybe this can be our bounce back snowfall year which we have been hoping for. 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Talk about cold incoming.

[EastonSN+]

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

There is an extreme cold pool over western Canada and all of Canada has deep snow cover.  This cold pool will not modify anytime soon.

Get some of that on a favorable trajectory over snow covered ground and it could get seriously cold around here as we move toward or through the first 10 days of January.   

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

Interesting look

[cleetussnow]

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

[Nibor]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about cold incoming.

Fun to look at. 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching.   Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal.  Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area.  We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year.

Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold.  EURO going full bore.

[WestBabylonWeather]

43 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Yea I was expecting +20 today not snow. 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Southern tier from the plains to the southeast is torching.   Stronger than expected and retrogressive blocking saved the day for the norther tier from the northern plains east into New England and south to about the Mason Dixon line keeping us near normal or slightly below normal.  Without that block some of that warmth would have easily spilled into our area.  We got lucky, no Christmas torch this year.

Longer range (yeah, I know longer range) is looking foreboding in terms of Arctic Cold.  EURO going full bore.

19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

19 in North Dakota while it's 71 in South Dakota is nuts

If it wasn’t for the strong -NAO, then record ridge across the Southern Plains would have expanded closer to our area.

 

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What the hell happened to the blowtorch on the weeklies?  We were supposed to close the shades until February.  

Stratospheric warming events happened