November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Below normal temperatures will prevail through tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern will then develop afterward. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern will likely continue into the closing days of November. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November could turn cooler.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,390th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +38.30 today. That is the highest SOI value since December 23, 2022 when the SOI reached +50.96.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.027 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

31 now. 

[jm1220]

Temp down to 30. 

[Sundog]

36 degrees where I am but a few 33s popping up just two or three miles east of me. 

[dmillz25]

Down to 40 here

[psv88]

30 now, some areas nearby dipping into the 20s

[Snowlover11]

Euro

[sussexcountyobs]

26

[Dan76]

17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Euro

Gfs says otherwise.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Gfs says otherwise.

So does the EPS

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So does the EPS

We obviously know it's just a LR OP run. Pattern doesn't look favorable for snow to me. Too much SE ridging, not enough sustained ridging out west. 

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We obviously know it's just a LR OP run. Pattern doesn't look favorable for snow to me. Too much SE ridging, not enough sustained ridging out west. 

Where do you see the SE ridging?

 

[jm1220]

Down to 27. I think that qualifies as a hard freeze. 

[ForestHillWx]

28 currently. Feels like November. 

[LAVistaNY]

First morning with ice on the  small pond low of 28°

[Intensewind002]

Irredescent cloud in West Babylon this morning

[bluewave]

We have 10 days to see if places like NYC can have their first freeze of the season. Stations like HPN and ISP still haven’t had their first hard freeze at 28. Even more rural locations like FWN still haven’t dropped below 20°. So all of our stations are still in the top 5 warmest fall lows due to how warm North America has been this fall.

Warmest fall lows temperatures across the region still in the top 5

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1998	36	0
2	2009	35	0
-	2006	35	0
3	2016	34	0
-	2010	34	0
-	2001	34	0
-	1963	34	0
-	1902	34	0
4	2025	33	11
-	2011	33	0
-	1985	33	0
-	1948	33	0
-	1907	33	0
5	2015	32	0
-	1983	32	0
-	1968	32	0
-	1954	32	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	33	11
-	1985	33	0
2	2016	32	0
-	2011	32	0
-	2006	32	0
3	2009	31	0
-	2001	31	0
-	1998	31	0
-	1988	31	0
-	1963	31	0
-	1923	31	0
4	2024	30	0
-	2010	30	0
-	1983	30	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	31	11
2	1983	30	0
3	2011	29	0
-	2006	29	0
4	2009	28	0
-	1985	28	0
5	2024	27	0
-	2016	27	0
-	1998	27	0
-	1980	27	0
-	1979	27	0
-	1977	27	0
-	1971	27	0

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2016	31	0
2	2025	29	13
-	1975	29	0
3	2024	28	0
-	2011	28	1
-	2010	28	0
-	2009	28	0
-	1998	28	19
-	1985	28	2
-	1983	28	0
4	2006	27	0
-	1999	27	14
-	1968	27	0
-	1953	27	1

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	31	14
2	1985	30	0
3	2024	27	0
-	2016	27	0
-	2006	27	3
-	1975	27	0
-	1968	27	1
-	1963	27	0
4	2011	26	0
-	1998	26	1
-	1988	26	0
-	1948	26	0
-	1913	26	0
5	2012	25	0
-	2009	25	0
-	1977	25	0
-	1965	25	0
-	1961	25	0
-	1944	25	0
-	1939	25	0
-	1902	25	1

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	25	11
2	2011	22	6
-	2009	22	0
-	2006	22	0
3	2024	21	0
4	2023	20	5
-	2017	20	0
-	2016	20	8
5	2021	19	0
-	2020	19	0
-	2012	19	5
-	2004	19	0
-	2001	19	1

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So does the EPS

Uh ?

[SACRUS]

37 / 29 and cloudy off a low of 28 here. One more day of slightly below normal and then overall above normal the next week Fri  - Fri with a few days potentially much above normal (+10) Tues/Wed this week.  Beyond there (29th) it looks to go overall below normal with a trough into the east and some stronger cold building northwest with a storm threat next weekend 29-30th. Nov as a whole should ed near or slightly above normal as a whole for a  good portion of the area.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 76 (1985)
NYC: 77 (1985)
LGA: 75 (1985)
JFK: 73 (1985)

Lows:

EWR: 21 (1984)
NYC: 20 (1873)
LGA: 23 (1984)
JFK: 25 (1896)


Historical:

 

1869 - A second great windstorm in three days struck Vermont and New York blowing railroad trains off their tracks. (David Ludlum)

1900 - An unusual tornado outbreak in the Lower Mississippi Valley resulted in 73 deaths and extensive damage across Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. (David Ludlum)

1914 - The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA, was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)

1942: Six-day heat wave occurred at DCA and Baltimore with a peak temperature of 79°F. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1953: Freezing rain hits parts of Minnesota. 3 inches of ice on wires at telephone wires at Lake Benton, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1977: Northern and western portions of South Dakota were hammered by a strong winter storm that began the previous day ending on this date. The storm moved rapidly from Colorado across eastern Nebraska and into Minnesota producing widespread snowfall across the area. Generally snowfall totals ranged from 5 to 15 inches. Winds of 50 mph produced blowing snow which greatly reduced visibilities and drifted snow up to 5 feet deep. The storm also caused the derailment of a freight train in northeast South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979 - A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY, producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Blustery northwest winds created snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Ohio Valley. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 18 inches at Paradise. Lake City MI received 9.5 inches of snow in four and a half hours. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Oswego County in western New York State. Strong winds produced wind chill readings as cold as 22 degrees below zero at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a fast moving cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 69 mph at Kennedy Airport in New York City, and winds along the cold front itself gusted to 56 mph at Cincinnati OH. The same storm produced snow in Kansas, Missouri and Illinois, with eight inches reported at Rolla MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure brought thunderstorms and high winds to the northeastern U.S. There were 193 reports of damaging winds with thunderstorms in New York State, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Tornadoes touched down near Seaside Park NJ and McAlevys Port PA. Winds with thunderstorms gusted to 92 mph at Poughkeepsie NY, and reached 94 mph at Newburgh NY. High winds in the Washington D.C. area, gusting to 73 mph, resulted in one death. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1994: Strong west winds whipped across parts of West Texas and most of the southern Plains. Wind gusts to 63 mph were recorded by the NWS at Lubbock International Airport, with a gust to 60 mph reported in Plainview. The high winds also caused lowing dust, with visibilities reduced to a half mile at times. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Thundersnow started during evening in the upper California desert and snow continued through the 22nd. Widespread reports of two feet with drifts to three feet came from Wrightwood, Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear and the Palm Springs Tramway, at 8,500 feet. The snow level was as low as 1,000 feet. 18 to 20 inches of snow fell in foothills south of Yucca Valley, 14 inches fell in Phelan, 9 to 12 inches in Hesperia and Apple Valley, 9 inches in Yucaipa and Calimesa and up to 3 inches throughout the southern Inland Empire. Tree damage resulted in lower elevations, which caused house damage and power outages. Snow lined I-10 near Calimesa for a few days following the end of the snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2009: Alaska from November 17th to the 21st: Bitter cold remains entrenched in central Alaska where high temperatures on the 20th only reaches the -40 °F range at Bettles and the morning temperature hit -46°F . Bettles has recorded lows of -45°F or below for five consecutive days. The lowest recorded was -47°F on both the 19th and 21st. (Ref. WxDoctor)


2015: Season's first snow is Chicago's largest November snowfall in 120 years starting on November 20 and ending on the 21st. The season's first snowfall dropped as much as 17 inches across Chicago's northern suburbs, and the total of 11.2 inches at O'Hare International Airport made it the largest November snowfall in 120 years. Digging out after Saturday November 21st first significant snowstorm of the season dumped between a few inches and 20 inches of snow across the Upper Midwest, blanketing a swath from South Dakota to Michigan.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

28 currently. Feels like November. 

28 here as well. Frost was everywhere.

[wdrag]

Ensembles shows some modest interest in snow/ice for the I84 corridor Thanks giving weekend and a period of advisory wind continues to be on the table. 

 

Am aware that many on here do not have access to Pivotal Weather ensembles. I'll post those when a thread is developed but I dont want to hype prior to.  Hopefully you trust that 00z/20 CMCE, EPS, GEFS ensembles have something around the 29th... I used the more conservative 24 hr snow depth change mean. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 11/14/2025 at 6:42 AM, bluewave said:

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12
1	1394	1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16
2	1383	2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12
3	1063	1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27
4	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
5	794	1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15
6	743	1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21
7	742	1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03
8	687	1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06
9	685	1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08
10	680	1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Days with 4” of snow
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	0	0
2023-2024	0	0
2022-2023	0	0
2021-2022	2	0
2020-2021	4	0
2019-2020	0	0
2018-2019	2	0
2017-2018	5	0
2016-2017	3	0
2015-2016	1	0
2014-2015	6	0
2013-2014	5	0
2012-2013	4	0
2011-2012	1	0
2010-2011	6	0
2009-2010	5	0

 

Do you think the atmosphere is still capable of producing 4" of snow in a single day at locations like New York and Pittsburgh (see below)? I noticed Pittsburgh has obliterated its longest stretch without 4" of snow, and this includes data from the downtown station that was a few hundred feet lower in elevation with a seasonal snowfall average of about ~12 inches less than the airport. So this is completely unprecedented since at least the 1870s. I have to wonder if the 40N parallel is simply too for south to see such heavy snow with the current atmospheric conditions? Maybe NYC will fare a little better being on the coast?

 

[Sundog]

How much difference can there be between ground level and 2 meters?

I remember when we had our burst of snow last week in the morning, my thermometer showed 33 degrees but I had a small puddle of water on a garden supplies container frozen. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Do you think the atmosphere is still capable of producing 4" of snow in a single day at locations like New York and Pittsburgh (see below)? I noticed Pittsburgh has obliterated its longest stretch without 4" of snow, and this includes data from the downtown station that was a few hundred feet lower in elevation with a seasonal snowfall average of about ~12 inches less than the airport. So this is completely unprecedented since at least the 1870s. I have to wonder if the 40N parallel is simply too for south to see such heavy snow with the current atmospheric conditions? Maybe NYC will fare a little better being on the coast?

 

Lol what an absurd post, my god.

10 inches fell in Florida last winter, you think NYC can no longer get 4 inches in one event?

There has been two events at JFK over 4 inches during this crap stretch, one of them being over 6 inches. 

[bluewave]

On 11/19/2025 at 9:30 AM, qg_omega said:

It was finally calm and clear, their low temperature was 2 degrees last night.  

Yeah, you would expect the fall low so far to eventually get down into that range. Not really cold by their standards over the short period of record since 1998. They got much colder in the fall of 2018 down to -21° on 11-23-18.
 

Time Series Summary for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY - Sep through Nov Lowest Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	2	11
2024	13	0
2023	4	0
2022	0	0
2021	-2	0
2020	3	0
2019	-9	0
2018	-21	0
2017	-3	0
2016	18	0
2015	9	0
2014	-3	2
2013	-13	0
2012	-4	0
2011	9	0
2010	2	0
2009	12	0
2008	1	0
2007	1	0
2006	11	1
2005	0	1
2004	3	0
2003	-1	1
2002	-9	0
2001	5	0
2000	-10	1
1999	-3	2
1998	6

 

Station Thread for Saranac Lake Area, NY

	Name	Period in Thread
1	Saranac Lake Adirondack Regional Apt	06/01/1998 to 12/31/2024
2	Ray Brook	04/01/1978 to 05/31/1998
3	Gabriels	09/01/1966 to 03/31/1978
4	Paul Smiths	07/01/1949 to 08/31/1966
5	Gabriels	09/01/1908 to 09/30/1948
6	Paul Smiths	03/01/1903 to 08/31/1908

 

 

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Lol what an absurd post, my god.

10 inches fell in Florida last winter, you think NYC can no longer get 4 inches in one event?

There has been two events at JFK over 4 inches during this crap stretch, one of them being over 6 inches. 

Some of these people are nuts. Many area's during the crap stretch have gotten a 4" snowfall or more within a 15 mile radius of NYC.  NYC had bad luck during those storms, mostly because of the storm track being a tiny bit off for them.  I went over it several times, but some are just too stubborn.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Lol what an absurd post, my god.

10 inches fell in Florida last winter, you think NYC can no longer get 4 inches in one event?

There has been two events at JFK over 4 inches during this crap stretch, one of them being over 6 inches. 

I got 8 inches in one event 2 winters ago.

Some of these posts are absurd. Its like we live in Florida.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Some of these people are nuts. Many area's during the crap stretch have gotten a 4" snowfall or more within a 15 mile radius of NYC.  NYC had bad luck during those storms, mostly because of the storm track being a tiny bit off for them.  I went over it several times, but some are just too stubborn.

Like last year 

Plenty of cold but the pacific didnt cooperate.