TS Melissa

[hawkeye_wx]

This is a weak and messy circulation.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is a weak and messy circulation.

It’ll be crazy to see the transformation in 72 hours. Not as dramatic as Gabrielle, but dramatic nonetheless.

[SnowGoose69]

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

Keep it moving west 

[Boston Bulldog]

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

[Floydbuster]

20 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

Agree. Sadly, had it done this a few days ago, it might have slipped through the weakness.

[Windspeed]

That track would be quite disastrous for Jamaica as it rakes most of the island with the front right quadrant.  Not to mention the huge amount of moisture that will be lifted and squeezed out by the mountains.

Given the slow recurve motion, Jamaica is facing a catastrophic flooding and mudslide situation.

[Windspeed]

The HAFS suite shows just how dire the slow recurve scenario would be with regards to a catastrophic flooding / mudslide scenario. The general wind and pressure intensities may be overdone, but the amount of rainfall will be extreme regardless.

[WxWatcher007]

This is such a sensitive track and intensity forecast. Just a few miles south or north would make a huge difference in intensity even though the catastrophic rainfall looks highly likely. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm glad the GFS is starting to get some sense with Melissa finally but holy shit what is the UKMET still doing lmao it's been doing this for days now when it's usually one of the best performing models. Just wild we've had the UKMET and GFS performing so poorly for so long with this storm.

 

[jbenedet]

Well done by the NHC; not even marginally hedging their forecast with the GFS output over the past few days.

[olafminesaw]

Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection

[GaWx]

 IF the NHC forecast were to play out, Melissa could end up having the 3rd highest ACE on record for so late in the season of the last 100 years behind only Mitch of 1998 and the Nov Cuba H of 1932! Wilma wouldn’t qualify because it dissipated too early (10/25).

 Going back further to 1851 on the record, only storm #6 of 1896 would appear to quite possibly have higher ACE later than Melissa again assuming NHC forecasts verify. So, Melissa could very well end up in rare company regarding the lateness of a very large ACE for a single storm on record.

————

Edit: This from yesterday’s Euro Weeklies illustrates well how high the ACE potential is: this shows 4.1 the normal ACE or ~15, which is near the normal for the peak week climo centered around Sept. 11th! That is almost entirely from Melissa. But that is only for Mon (10/27) through Sun (11/2). So, that doesn’t even include today through Sun.

[hawkeye_wx]

06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.

[ATDoel]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection

I don't know if I would describe that LLC as well defined.  It still looks messy and very elongated to me based on satellite and recon data, but better than yesterday.

[Amped]

45 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.

No matter how far southwest it tracks, it turns right back over Jamaica.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

I don't know if I would describe that LLC as well defined.  It still looks messy and very elongated to me based on satellite and recon data, but better than yesterday.

1002mb usually isn't well defined. The Euro is not really showing much deepening until tomorrow morning. It probably becomes a hurricane tomorrow evening and a major by Sunday afternoon.

[ATDoel]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

1002mb usually isn't well defined. The Euro is not really showing much deepening until tomorrow morning. It probably becomes a hurricane tomorrow evening and a major by Sunday afternoon.

This may be one of those storms (hopefully) that takes far longer to get it together than the models predict.  The current LLC is significantly displaced rom the MLC still, nothing big is going to happen until they stack.

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

This may be one of those storms (hopefully) that takes far longer to get it together than the models predict.  The current LLC is significantly displaced rom the MLC still, nothing big is going to happen until they stack.

Yeah but there's a troff thats been keeping them separate. When it lifts out, it should result in both a west turn and a center alignment.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE
EAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 74.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through
Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to
the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of
this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation
is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on
satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of
deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with
evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A
WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that
much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a
significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight
level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt
intensity this advisory.

As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent
steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the
southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's
very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so,
and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by
center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the
mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen
to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better
agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond
that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to
move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for
Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of
the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south
over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in
solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and
how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track
forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is
shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest
HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa
could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or
over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more
uncertain than usual.

The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the
deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but
there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any
intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or
so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental
conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid
intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the
system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty
is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours,
Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land
interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line
with the latest GDMI guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a
life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect
life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also
potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

[SnoSki14]

With the slow motion and insane rainfall amounts we could be looking at a humanitarian disaster for Jamaica. 

[hooralph]

FWI, generated top 5 analogs for Melissa:

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears the surface and mid levels are finally beginning to come together.  The convection is looking significantly better organized and now recon is finding the pressure dropping below 1000 mb.  Also, the center continues to be pulled eastward while the convection tries to wrap back westward toward the center.

[Interstate]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 241630
TCUAT3
 
Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
 
...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...
 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that 
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now 
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum  
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb   
(29.50 inches). 
 
SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[Maxwell03]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

With the slow motion and insane rainfall amounts we could be looking at a humanitarian disaster for Jamaica. 

I am thinking the same unfortunately, possibly one of the defining natural disasters of the year. 

[ATDoel]

wow, looks like the MLC jumped to the LLC, that was fast.  We may be off to the races now, next recon will probably find a much different storm.

[CCHurricane]

Pretty significant shift east on 18z spaghetti plots...no?

[hawkeye_wx]

Track is shifting eastward.

[Boston Bulldog]

Easterly shift is likely due to the center reformation to the E-SE that occurred in the past 24 hours

[Floydbuster]