olafminesaw Posted Monday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:58 PM 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength? The only one I could find that made a sharp turn was Mitch, didn't seem to significantly weaken when making the turn, but did weaken gradually not too long after. Matthew maintained Cat 4 strength well after the turn, but did weaken slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Monday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:59 PM The reason I thought they were missing the NE eyewall a few posts ago is due to this. It appears they flew through the more eastern eyewall than the NE quadrant and might have even missed the center of the eye here. But then I had to remind myself of that pesky parallax positoning of the satellite image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:01 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She’s already passing 78 W. I think the western part of the island and places like Montego Bay could have issues. Basically 12z guidance turns it N now, but I don’t see signs of that quite yet. Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:04 PM 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Monday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:37 PM As others have said, Melissa is currently moving South of due West again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Monday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:41 PM Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:53 PM WOW!!! Between passes, gusts go from 194kts to 210kts. In the more recent dropsonde, notice how the temperature and dewpoint lines zigzag at the bottom. This means the dropsonde rotated and touched all 4 quads of the eye. Melissa is in extremely rare air, officially the 3rd highest gusts ever recorded by recon hunters. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:54 PM 907mb 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Monday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:08 PM It's not 907 mb. The latest recon passes found ~914 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:11 PM 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's not 907 mb. The latest recon passes found ~914 mb. Adjusted to 907mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:15 PM 33 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating. In fact, too soon to say but that may be starting now. Westward progress halted the last few frames and wobbled South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:24 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:36 PM I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning. I think at this juncture, given the pristine environment until landfall and how healthy Melissa is, it’s hard to fathom any additional intensification. Melissa is making a serious run at sub-900 pressure in a tight window before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Looks like it's bottoming out with this latest pass. Pressure still around 910 and FL wind still at 156 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM 2 minutes ago, Morris said: That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... ignore any of the SFMR readings, they aren't reliable, the NHC isn't using them at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Morris said: That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM 6z HAFS-A model which has handled Melissa very well intensity and movement wise, bottoms out of 906 mb between 6-9z Tuesday with 913 mb at landfall West movement has ceased on satellite. Based on all the models and forecast, the north turn should be imminent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM HAFS-B track is sure off -- the 6z run showed Melissa crossing 17N before even getting to 78W, with northern movement occuring between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. That didn't happen. HAFS-A had the storm still shy of 78W at 11 am Per satellite, looks like the storm has made it to 78.2W Probably just within-track-error noise, but with much more westward progress, the turn north would keep the storm pretty close to the western tip of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM This thing could absolutely destroy Jamaica. Pray for it to go around either side, and weaken at the same time. Incredible storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 PM 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.4°N 78.2°WMoving: W at 3 mphMin pressure: 908 mbMax sustained: 165 mph Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 PM 912 mb dropsonde with 36 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted Monday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:55 PM 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading? Takes time to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted Monday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:59 PM 3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Takes time to catch up Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted Monday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:17 PM 16 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad. Another factor is that it really isn't moving. A storm's movement speed adds to it's max wind speed. If nothing changes at all the wind speed will come up a bit once it gets moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted Monday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:19 PM 26 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Was able to grab a recent radar image. No signs of ERC Almost looks like a giant supercell you'd see in Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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