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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?


dailylurker
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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

0.07”.  I was out this weekend so I didn’t track this storm, so does anyone remember which models correctly forecasted the evolution of this coastal storm? Take note of that for winter. 

Euro AI & ICON were the first to back off this event, if I remember. NAM got schooled big time.

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14 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Increasing consensus that this will be mainly a light to moderate rain chance on the western shore with a heavier footprint on the eastern shore, but still likely to miss out on the worst. The trend the past few nights when doing the QPF was to bring down totals across the Central Mid Atlantic as the evolution would be a detriment to a widespread rainfall as the 5H pattern leads to a disconnect over our area. There will be some rain and some breezy winds, but the heavier precip and stronger wind field forecast from a few days ago has vanished with consensus now in the short term suite. I would imagine it'll still be kind of raw overall, but it won't be a total wash out at this juncture. The only way it could is if the occlusion of the secondary low to the northeast leads to a pinwheel back overhead and gets part of the forum before diminishing and fading out to see on the end of the SLP lifecycle. 

Tough break, but it'll at least moisten things up a little bit without getting fully skunked. 

Going as expected from last nights suite. Just a gloomy day in these parts 

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Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain:  Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out up here as it is filtering in from the NNE.

Had a wind gust here of 36 mph.  The sun has been peeking out from time to time too.

Typical La Nina coastal where the blocking gives way and the storm just cannot get going because all the pieces of the storm do not phase together.  This is our calling card probably for the Winter of 2025-2026 with this storm right here.

Maybe we can lucky and score a weak La Nina and get us into the Winter of 1995-1996?

 

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