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October Discobs 2025


George BM
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Freeze watch up for parts of the piedmont.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

VAZ028>031-039-040-051-501-502-230000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.251024T0600Z-251024T1300Z/
Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-
1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Culpeper, Northern Fauquier, Southern Fauquier, Clarke,
  Frederick VA, Madison, Page, Rappahannock, and Warren Counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

(snip)

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13 hours ago, stormy said:

My observation here is about 10 degrees per 1000 ft. . Sounds about right for here.

When cold air aloft is moving in from the west to north.

At other times, 3-5 degrees per 1000 ft..  Observations based on frequent visitation to a location 20 miles northwest at 4400 ft. which is about 3000 ft. higher than my 1400 ft. elevation at home.

When a warm front is knocking from the southwest it can be warmer at 4400 ft..

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31 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Relentless, UFO-level cloud deck nearby today.  If you love winter, you gotta love the upcoming forecast.

Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn:

1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 

2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 

3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.

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36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn:

1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 

2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 

3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.

The one feature you like to see on the LR ens guidance and the extended products is the advertised persistent Aleutian trough and downstream PNA ridge. Not Nina-like. We shall see how it plays out going forward.

eta- Continuing this in the winter thread. More appropriate there.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The one feature you like to see on the LR ens guidance and the extended products is the advertised persistent Aleutian trough and downstream PNA ridge. Not Nina-like. We shall see how it plays out going forward.

eta- Continuing this in the winter thread. More appropriate there.

Blerg. I thought I cross pollinated this in the winter thread. 

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