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October Discobs 2025


George BM
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Freeze watch up for parts of the piedmont.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

VAZ028>031-039-040-051-501-502-230000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.251024T0600Z-251024T1300Z/
Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-
1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.

* WHERE...Culpeper, Northern Fauquier, Southern Fauquier, Clarke,
  Frederick VA, Madison, Page, Rappahannock, and Warren Counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

(snip)

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13 hours ago, stormy said:

My observation here is about 10 degrees per 1000 ft. . Sounds about right for here.

When cold air aloft is moving in from the west to north.

At other times, 3-5 degrees per 1000 ft..  Observations based on frequent visitation to a location 20 miles northwest at 4400 ft. which is about 3000 ft. higher than my 1400 ft. elevation at home.

When a warm front is knocking from the southwest it can be warmer at 4400 ft..

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3 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Interesting temperature gradient 

Oh, Nice catch! There was a band of clouds there pretty much all night, blocked the longwave radiation cooling. Likely also prevented a sturdier inversion from developing and calming the winds at the surface.
image.png.e53e510fff24f14f9f541b8d0ec734c5.png

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The trend should be our friend in the rainfall dept. next week. Latest 4 model blend gives Augusta 1.50 next week and latest 7 day WPC gives 1.50 - 2.00", though it only counts when in the bucket.

Water table in the Valley has dropped 10 ft. since early August.......................................

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