NorthHillsWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 917, 160 mph. Holy moly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Four consecutive hurricane seasons of at least one Category 5. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Hard to discern what is going on wet the ERC. Usually the outer eyewall contract, but in this case it seems lt be doing the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I respect the conservative nature of NHC. Gotta make sure you get it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Gotta make sure you get it right.I'm glad reconnaissance had one more pass in them. I just knew Erin had not peaked yet. It may still get even deeper before leveling off this afternoon. But obviously, we want the official upgrade reflective of in situ data. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hard to discern what is going on wet the ERC. Usually the outer eyewall contract, but in this case it seems lt be doing the opposite Purely a guess but it is feeling a bit of shear from the north. I think it’s successfully disrupting the attempts to establish an outer eyewall but it’s just simply too intense of an inner core to be bothered by the same shear. An absolute unit of a storm. Parallels are hard to draw but the San Juan radar reminds me so much of Charley. compact little donut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago https://x.com/packie7b/status/1956739516695216384?s=46 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Did Erin break any records with this RI cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago We throw a lot of faith on models despite the GFS just initializing at 982mb at 12z. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Well, apparently, recon wants to sample Erin close to peak because they're positioning for yet another pass; this time should be through the NE and SW quadrants of the eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Well, apparently, recon wants to sample Erin close to peak because they're positioning for yet another pass; this time should be through the NE and SW quadrants of the eye. Perfect time to get good data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We throw a lot of faith on models despite the GFS just initializing at 982mb at 12z. While the GFS’s initialization was egregiously high, in a storm with a small intense inner core like this, it will always be playing catchup. Global models simply do not have the granular resolution to initialize a small core correctly, especially in a genuinely extreme RI scenario. Their resolution is far too coarse. Only telescoping models like HAFS have the ability to initialize a storm with Erin’s structure correctly 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago So, uh, Erin's on the south side if rhe cone again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Wow at that dropsonde from the previous pass, which splashed down in the SW eyewall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I mentioned earlier that Erin is embedded in an above mean background pressure regime. So if we get readings down near 910 hPa before Erin levels off, we may see some higher sustained winds yet. We saw this during Dorian and Irma near their peaks, though I'm not saying Erin will get that intense. 150 kts/175 mph sustained doesn't seem unreasonable now, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So, uh, Erin's on the south side if rhe cone again. This is trochoidal wobbling of the core, as of right now the eye is deviating back to the NW. The greater motion of the storm is as forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Absolutely beautiful hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Wow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Incredible photo. Those guys have be getting the shit kicked out of them flying in this beast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Laughably ridiculous RI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3rd year in a row with top 1% Rapid Intensification 2023 was Lee 2024 was Milton 2025 Erin 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago This is why we’re weather weenies… for storms like Erin. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Not really anything impressive yet with regards to concentric banding around Erin's donut of an eyewall. Granted, this is a good distance away from San Juan's radar tower. Erin continues to have a small but stable eyewall for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 3rd year in a row with top 1% Rapid Intensification 2023 was Lee 2024 was Milton 2025 Erin How does 2024 July 1st Beryl rank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago St. Maarten's radar is in closer proximity to Erin's core and, therefore, has better returns from the northern semicircle of Erin's outer circulation. As such, concentric banding is a little more evident here. Perhaps even with a moat forming in-between the northern outer band and Erin's northern eyewall. So we may not be long from an EWRC initiating now during peak intensity. Very thankful recon made those few final passes earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: How does 2024 July 1st Beryl rank Beryl didn't go 75mph to 160mph overnight like those others did, but the strength at that time of year makes it the 4th major anomaly in the last 3 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Euro came well west with Erin. Outerbanks should watch this carefully 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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