July Discobs 2025

[H2O]

17 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS.....Friday will bring relief!!!!  24 hour temp forecast change for 2pm Friday.

Is this good?  Can't tell.  

[Mrs.J]

86/74/77

Went out on the deck to water the container plants and came back in all sweaty. Am counting down the hours for that cooler dryer air to come in tomorrow evening. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

On 7/29/2025 at 7:25 AM, frd said:

They definitely lowered rainfall totals in the range of 1 to 3 days. I could still use an inch though. 

A day later and the purple is back.

[BlizzardNole]

It is so hot!  87/77 with no wind making just a 15-minute dog walk a sweaty one.  That Canadian airmass can't get here quick enough

[frd]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

A day later and the purple is back.

 

Yes, and a great AFD by Mount Holly. Of note,  highest FF potential is near and NW of I 95,  and the latest models are going with a faster convective progression. 

 

The greater
flash flood threat should hold off until the daytime Thursday
though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday,
which will pose a risk of flash flooding. Much cooler, breezy,
and showery conditions are expected to follow on Friday.

The ridging to our southwest will continue to shift eastward
through Thursday, with high pressure remaining offshore at the
surface. Broad upper diffluence will remain in place aloft
through Friday. Meanwhile, a slow moving cold front is expected
to push gradually southward Thursday through Thursday night.
This should result in some weak cyclogenesis in the Mid Atlantic
region as the front works its way south, with the surface low
passing offshore on Friday.

There remains a threat of flash flooding for Thursday afternoon
and evening, as widespread showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop within the vicinity of the slow moving
frontal boundary. PoPs were remain near 70-80% for the entire
area, peaking from north to south as the front moves gradually
southward through Thursday night. As diurnal instability builds
ahead of the front into the afternoon, PWats will increase into
the 2.0-2.5 inch range. Mean layer flow will be roughly parallel
to the frontal boundary, which could support training
convection. The latest guidance has trended a bit faster with
the frontal and convective progression, which could limit a more
widespread flash flood potential. Cyclogensis nearby could also
introduce some frontogenetic forcing into the equation as well.
The synoptic aspects of this setup will probably lead to
convection continuing into the overnight period as well.

Exact details on the evolution of the convection and flash
flood threat remain unclear, as the mesoscale details remain to
be seen. Our current rainfall forecast ranges from around 1-2"
across the area, but locally higher amounts of 3" or greater are
certainly possible. The flash flood threat will ultimately
depend on where the heaviest rain sets up, and how quickly
convection is propagating. The higher threat for flash flooding
will probably end up being in the usual locations near and
northwest of I-95. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding for the entire area. A few
isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible
as well, but the main threat will be the flash flooding
potential. Remain alert for updates to the forecast regarding
these threats.

[frd]

Here we go again.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012-013-015>019-027-PAZ070-071-101>106-311000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0010.250731T1800Z-250801T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Moorestown, Pottstown, Trenton,
Pennsville, Perkasie, Doylestown, Honey Brook, Morrisville,
Glassboro, Norristown, Camden, Somerville, Cherry Hill, Mount
Holly, New Brunswick, Lansdale, Media, West Chester, Oxford,
Flemington, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Wilmington, Freehold,
Philadelphia, Collegeville, and Wharton State Forest
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following
  area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas,
  Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern
  Burlington, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington and Western
  Monmouth, and southeast Pennsylvania, including the following
  areas, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks,
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may
  become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A warm and increasingly humid airmass will be in place ahead
    of an approaching cold front that will pass through the
    region Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be
    capable of heavy rain resulting in rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
    inches with 6 inches or more in localized areas. Rainfall
    rates may exceed 2 inches per hour.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

 

 

 

 

[IronTy]

Maybe im just becoming use to the humidity, but it doesn't even feel that bad out now.  Almost feels dry.  

[BlizzardNole]

I've been out some and yeah it's hot but not as horrible as expected.  I cannot wait for this cold front though!  I doubt I'll get any rain here and will water everything tomorrow as usual.  But great temps are coming and all of next week looks good!

[dailylurker]

34 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Maybe im just becoming use to the humidity, but it doesn't even feel that bad out now.  Almost feels dry.  

I've gotten use to the heat and humidity. I work outside all day. Today I was in Deal, MD applying polly sand to a paver patio. It was partly shaded and their was a nice breeze. I'm looking forward to a nice rain tomorrow for my cannabis ladies. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Here we go again.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012-013-015>019-027-PAZ070-071-101>106-311000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0010.250731T1800Z-250801T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Moorestown, Pottstown, Trenton,
Pennsville, Perkasie, Doylestown, Honey Brook, Morrisville,
Glassboro, Norristown, Camden, Somerville, Cherry Hill, Mount
Holly, New Brunswick, Lansdale, Media, West Chester, Oxford,
Flemington, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Wilmington, Freehold,
Philadelphia, Collegeville, and Wharton State Forest
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following
  area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas,
  Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern
  Burlington, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington and Western
  Monmouth, and southeast Pennsylvania, including the following
  areas, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks,
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may
  become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A warm and increasingly humid airmass will be in place ahead
    of an approaching cold front that will pass through the
    region Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be
    capable of heavy rain resulting in rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
    inches with 6 inches or more in localized areas. Rainfall
    rates may exceed 2 inches per hour.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

 

 

 

 

Flood watch in effect for SNJ and the rest of mid/upper eastern shore of MD and central/southern DE too.

[GramaxRefugee]

50 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

... I'm looking forward to a nice rain tomorrow for my cannabis ladies. 

Might be a good name for our band. Well, in 1988. 

[CAPE]

[CAPE]

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD

Quote

Abundant tropical moisture will be in place, and then will increase further in the afternoon and evening with surface dew points well in the 70s. This will yield PWATs well in excess of 2 to 2.5 inches. Heavy rain will be the main threat. The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for most of the urban corridor from around Newark to Philadelphia to Wilmington and surrounding areas, and a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for the rest of the region. Models are indicating rainfall amounts generally 2 to 4 inches in that Moderate Risk, with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches. Rainfall rates could also be in excess of 2 inches per hour. A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware for Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, with a highlighted focus on the urban corridor. Make sure you have a way to receive any flash flood warnings on Thursday, and remember not to drive around barricades.

Juicy

[George BM]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

I've been out some and yeah it's hot but not as horrible as expected.  I cannot wait for this cold front though!  I doubt I'll get any rain here and will water everything tomorrow as usual.  But great temps are coming and all of next week looks good!

 

On 7/25/2025 at 9:50 PM, CAPE said:

That was fun. Gusty with lots of T&L. Direct hit. Picked up 0.85" in a hurry. There is a second line moving this way but it's a bit broken so we shall see.

Mower is all wet lol but no need to get up early and water plants! It gets dry here quickly if it doesn't rain for a few days this time of year.

 

On 4/30/2025 at 7:47 AM, nw baltimore wx said:

I left the sunroof open in my truck and made it rain! .08”

@BlizzardNole If your vehicle has a sunroof, leave it open tomorrow. If you have a mower, leave it outside. And, of course, water everything tomorrow. Combine all that together and that should get you at least 3".

[EastCoast NPZ]

Oh, look, another day with storms to the south.  Groundhog Day on repeat.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

 

 

@BlizzardNole If your vehicle has a sunroof, leave it open tomorrow. If you have a mower, leave it outside. And, of course, water everything tomorrow. Combine all that together and that should get you at least 3".

Now do @EastCoast NPZ

[George BM]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Now do @EastCoast NPZ

He's a harder case. His luck is very volatile. @EastCoast NPZ whatever you did during the month of May clearly worked out for you. Try that... at least to start.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, George BM said:

He's a harder case. His luck is very volatile. @EastCoast NPZ whatever you did during the month of May clearly worked out for you. Try that... at least to start.

He literally needs to move a mountain.

Or move.

[BlizzardNole]

LOL at this point I'd be thrilled with a half inch.  My total since July 2 has been 0.8 and everything is just parched.

It's my last summer here as we're moving to southern Calvert next spring.  I grew up in southern MD so I know what that means for winters, but maybe I'll actually see thunderstorms in the dang summer

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

LOL at this point I'd be thrilled with a half inch.  My total since July 2 has been 0.8 and everything is just parched.

It's my last summer here as we're moving to southern Calvert next spring.  I grew up in southern MD so I know what that means for winters, but maybe I'll actually see thunderstorms in the dang summer

Almost 7" for the month here and already dry af. 5 days without rain this time of year and its like it never rained lol. All the trees and super well drained soil..

[frd]

Rather impressive area of flood watches. 

 

[nj2va]

86/77 at 10:20p

[high risk]

Several evening hi-res runs now initiate storms in the area by early afternoon and possibly even a bit earlier.

[TheClimateChanger]

Should finish rather close to the hottest July and any month on record for Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. Looking at the current statewide numbers, I'm thinking 3rd place, perhaps even 2nd in Maryland. Maybe somewhat surprising looking only at the urban numbers, but a lot of rural and high elevation locations have cooked this month.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM for tomorrow.  I hope it is even half correct....