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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

Any severe?

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23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I edited that

My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Boom...

I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. 

It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo.  when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. 

We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely.   what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.  

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54 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Any severe?

 

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe! 

 

23 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like a chance tomorrow.

 

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boom...

I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. 

It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo.  when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. 

We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely.   what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.  

Let's dew it.  Doesn't have to be severe imby.  Just some good heavy rainers with a few rumbles would be great.

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Just now, metagraphica said:

 

 

 

 

Let's dew it.  Doesn't have to be severe imby.  Just some good heavy rainers with a few rumbles would be great.

Like last night? I wasn't expecting anything yesterday and the minute I walked outside with the dog the skies opened up and heard a loud boom, dog went back in quickly.

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3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Like last night? I wasn't expecting anything yesterday and the minute I walked outside with the dog the skies opened up and heard a loud boom, dog went back in quickly.

Had a few rumbles in January? February? but nothing since then.  Yesterday was just intermittent light rain over 12+ hours.  Want a nice gully washer. 1 or 2 inches in 30 minutes type of storm!!

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20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation :lol: 

That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters

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