July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[weatherwiz]

the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I hope it messes with the heat coming up 

Something tells me that you will not be a candidate for the  "Best Poster of Summer 2025 Award"..

[dendrite]

83.0/67 BKN

Loving the daily mid 80s. Perfect. 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Something tells me that you will not be a candidate for the  "Best Poster of Summer 2025 Award"..

Particularly when heat and hurricanes are kind of a necessary tandem.

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I hope it messes with the heat coming up 

Hopefully you get a foot of rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

Moregarbage...that guy is awful.

[forkyfork]

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I hope it messes with the heat coming up 

i have some upsetting news for you about nina autumns 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

when i was a kid 70 degree dewpoints felt special 

when I was a kid 100 degree temperatures felt special.

they still feel special ha

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i have some upsetting news for you about nina autumns 

Good, I want 1983 to be the top analog.

September 1983 has never been equaled.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Moregarbage...that guy is awful.

He is just channeling his last name lol

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Particularly when heat and hurricanes are kind of a necessary tandem.

Thats why the 1950s were so magical and have not been matched since.

Also, 1944...

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats why the 1950s were so magical and have not been matched since.

Also, 1944...

And some of us were alive and old enough to remember the 50s.  

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Moregarbage...that guy is awful.

He pretends he's a met and just destroys all credibility.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Connecticut is the Philadelphia of New England in all seasons.

Nah. Philly gets more snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He pretends he's a met and just destroys all credibility.

As  much as I hate heat, he is the last dude I want telling me its going to cool down. Kev and Scooter rejoice.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cooler than I expected so far today

78F for the high. Was hoping for mid 80s

Stupid clouds

[powderfreak]

83/59 here.

Nice summer day.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather. 

Any severe?

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Any severe?

maybe! 

[DavisStraight]

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cooler than I expected so far today

78F for the high. Was hoping for mid 80s

Stupid clouds

Im 81/72, dewey again, was nice this morning.

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe! 

Looks like a chance tomorrow.

[Torch Tiger]

Models look very meh for tomorrow. Maybe a few storms get going I guess

[FXWX]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe! 

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Clouds have been pretty stubborn lately. Tomorrow through Monday looks nice. After that, looks questionable 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I edited that

My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Boom...

I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. 

It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo.  when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. 

We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely.   what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.  

[Typhoon Tip]

If this Euro-esque solution were to take place, this would set up a mega torch for the NP-Lakes-OV-NE.  ...basically everywhere over the c-eastern mid latitude continent.

[metagraphica]

54 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Any severe?

 

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe! 

 

23 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like a chance tomorrow.

 

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Boom...

I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. 

It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo.  when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. 

We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely.   what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.  

Let's dew it.  Doesn't have to be severe imby.  Just some good heavy rainers with a few rumbles would be great.

[DavisStraight]

Just now, metagraphica said:

 

 

 

 

Let's dew it.  Doesn't have to be severe imby.  Just some good heavy rainers with a few rumbles would be great.

Like last night? I wasn't expecting anything yesterday and the minute I walked outside with the dog the skies opened up and heard a loud boom, dog went back in quickly.

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Like last night? I wasn't expecting anything yesterday and the minute I walked outside with the dog the skies opened up and heard a loud boom, dog went back in quickly.

Had a few rumbles in January? February? but nothing since then.  Yesterday was just intermittent light rain over 12+ hours.  Want a nice gully washer. 1 or 2 inches in 30 minutes type of storm!!

[weatherwiz]

20 minutes ago, FXWX said:

SPC has decided to tease the setup a bit more!

Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation  

That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters