October 2024

[Brian5671]

Feels like a summer day here outside of the low sun angle

[bluewave]

This has to be one of the most extreme +EPO dry months ever experienced.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was another brilliant sun-filled day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Daily records were set or tied at locations including:

Bridgeport: 77° (tied record set in 1975)
Islip: 82° (old record: 77°, 1979)
New York City-JFK Airport: 80° (old record: 77°, 1975 and 1984)
Philadelphia: 84° (old record: 83°, 1920)
Trenton: 83° (tied record set in 1979)
Wilmington, DE: 82° (old record: 81°, 1979)

Tomorrow will be another sunny and unseasonably warm day, but it will be somewhat cooler than today. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 70s. It will turn cooler on Thursday with the mercury being confined to the 60s. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat will affect Phoenix and Tucson tomorrow through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 22 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 24th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 7th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +16.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +4.521 today. The preliminary figure exceeds the prior October monthly record of +3.754, which was set on October 24, 2008. It is also the second highest autumn value, exceeded only by the +4.544 figure on November 2, 1978.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.8° (1.9° above normal).

 

[Cyg]

Went cycling with just a T-shirt and shorts. Saw some landscapers blowing leaves and it looked like a dust storm. 

[lee59]

81 my high.

[psv88]

82

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

If you’re not on duty take your love for a hand in hand walk and kick through the falling leaves as you go. Close your eyes Anthony and imagine doing the same with flakes in the air. For me, walking alone, it’s only a memory, gone seven years ….. For you it’s now. Stay well and together, as always …….

Always live and celebrate "today" because tomorrow is a guarantee for no one.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Feels like a summer day here outside of the low sun angle

Thankful for that low sun angle!  That and the great foliage make this warmth more tolerable.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Cyg said:

Went cycling with just a T-shirt and shorts. Saw some landscapers blowing leaves and it looked like a dust storm. 

Same here with the landscapers.  Dust storm is an understatement.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Cyg said:

Went cycling with just a T-shirt and shorts. Saw some landscapers blowing leaves and it looked like a dust storm. 

I had to walk through that this past weekend.  Even though they stopped as I walked by, the cloud of dust remained.  So it's not against town or state ordinances to raise particulates to an unsafe level?

[Roger Smith]

All 80F days at NYC this late in the season (included 78 and 79): 

Oct 21 __ 84_1920 ... 83_1947 ... 80_1949,63,79 ... 79_2024 ... 78_1915,2017

Oct 22 __ 88_1979 ... 83_1920 ... 81_2024 ... 78_1975

Oct 23 __ 85_1947 ... 78_1979, 2007

Oct 24 __ 79_2001 

Oct 25 __ 79_1963

Oct 26 __ 78_1963,64

Oct 27 __ 82_1963 ... 78_1947

Oct 28 __ 83_1919 ... 80_2023 ... 79_1984 ... 78_1946

Oct 29 __ 78_1971

Oct 30 __ 82_1946,61 ... 79_1950

Oct 31 __ 81_1946

Nov 1 __ 85_1950 ... 81_1974

Nov 2 __ 83_1950 ... 79_1982

Nov 3 __ 79_2003 ... 78_1990

Nov 4 __ 78_1975

Nov 5-14 __ max values 78 (5th 1961, 7th 1938)

Nov 15 __ 80_1993

(not included, 77, 76, 77, 76 Oct 26-29, 1989; 76, 77 Oct 22-23 1900; 73, 76 Nov 1-2 1929; 

1994 had a long warm spell Oct 29 to Nov 9: 67, 75, 73, 66, 58, 70, 76, 73, 70, 61, 70, 70 

===========================================

Also, as to length of dry spell (now at 23 days Sep 30 - Oct 22 2024) is into top twenty (t14) for NYC (no measurable precip):

(second list on right has a limited total precip basis to show almost dry spells, in some cases these include members of the first list ... and Oct 2024 would need to record .15" or less by Oct 29 to start appearing on second list, and would reach first place if the total precip by Nov 15 was .23" or less ... criterion for "extended dry spell" is an average of .01" per two days or less. From the data shown, you can tell that .01" of rain on Nov 14, 1924 was the only precip in a 44-day interval. The one longer "extended dry spell" in summer 1995 had somewhat more intrusive small amounts of rain but included 24 and 12 day absolute dry spells. The third entry (Oct 3 to Nov 14 1952) had frequent very light precip amounts in a generally cold pattern turning mild near its conclusion. It was not impressive for absolute drought. 

Looking at the absolute dry spells, this one will reach second place if it holds up to Oct 28th (29 days), and would be first if it gets to Nov 5 (37 days). 

Last year there was a 13-day dry spell Nov 8-20 that completed a 21-day "extended dry spell" starting October 31st. 

The 2024 absolute dry spell is shown in its current location, to be edited in future days.

____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______

Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS)

_01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12)

_02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36)

t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.)

t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t04___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11)

t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t04___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14)

t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9)

t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t06 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12)

t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t06 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27)

t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15)

t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t10 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13)

t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t10 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15)

t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t12 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11)

t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t12 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19)

 

t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23

(ranks below prior to new entry)

t 14 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t12 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9)

t 14 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14)

t_14 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20)

_ 17 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t15 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9)

t 18 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t15 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24)

t 18 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t19 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15)

t 18 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t19 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14)

t 18 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t19 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11)

t 18 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t19 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14)

t 18 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 ___ 23 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12)

t 24 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___ t24 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23)

t 24 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___ t24 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17)

t 24 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __ t24 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27)

t 27 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t24 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) 

t 27 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 _________ t24 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10)

t 27 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t24 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26)

t 27 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________ t30 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9)

t 27 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ____t30 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28)

t 27 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t30 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10)

t 27 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t30 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18)

t 27 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____ t30 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8)

------------------------

 

[Allsnow]

 

[mcwx]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very lucky to be getting this dry pattern now as we could have exceeded 110° at the warm spots like Newark with enough SW to W flow during July. Some locations reached 108° during 2010 and 2011 and those summers had more rainfall than the last 60 days. The summer of 2022 had more rainfall also and still managed to get over 100° for 6 days. 

Since that would have been summer with higher dewpoints, given the current drier airmass, what do you think the upper bounds could have been?

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

New Brnswck: 85
PHL: 84
EWR: 83
TEB: 83
TTN: 83
ACY: 83
ISP: 82
LGA: 82
BLM: 81
NYC: 81
JFK: 80

[winterwx21]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Cool fart this weekend then back to the torch 

That does look like a decent cool shot Sunday into Monday. Looks like another close call for the growing season like we had with last week's cool shot when it got down to 34 here. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it will stay just above the freezing level again so the growing season can continue. I think it will, but it looks close for Sunday night. Hopefully just mid 30s. 

[gravitylover]

I'm hoping too, I'm still getting fresh strawberries and tomatoes from my garden 

[Dan76]

Wow I have clouds in my 7 day wee.

[FPizz]

Weather has been great for solar panels.  I should easily break my october solar output even with a 12 year old system.  

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Weather has been great for solar panels.  I should easily break my october solar output even with a 12 year old system.  

We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it 

The problem is these patterns have been getting stuck for a very long time. 

Being warm is one thing but there's always been rain with it. Prolonged warm & dry is something we haven't seen in a very long time. 

[Allsnow]

 

[BxEngine]

Best fall colors in years around here. 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, mcwx said:

Since that would have been summer with higher dewpoints, given the current drier airmass, what do you think the upper bounds could have been?

If we ever got a severe enough drought from June into July at peak annual heating with westerly flow my guess is that someone near Newark would have a shot at around 112°. The previous record high at Newark was 108°. Olympia, Washington beat their previous all-time record by 6° a few summers ago. So that shows what is possible in this much warmer world when severe drought feedback kicks in. Hopefully, we eventually shift back to our wetter pattern with more summer onshore flow and don’t  ever see anything resembling a severe summer drought with westerly flow here. Since our power grid wasn’t designed for that type of extreme demand.

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
3	1994	102	0
4	2006	101	0

[FPizz]

31 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Best fall colors in years around here. 

I drive up 287 from where I am to Pearl River NY a couple days a week for work and the colors have been amazing.  Nice shot!

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Best fall colors in years around here. 

Dry weather and cool nights? 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Wow I have clouds in my 7 day wee.

Hmm.  I’d see a Dr.  

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 49 and more near / low 80s today.  A mostly dry front overnight and Thu will cool it down with a reinforcing, mainly dry front Sunday.  Cooler Thu - Mon before ridging and warmth return on a Bermuda high 28th with a very warm close to the month.   Dryness continues through the opening of Nov, overall warmer than normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  87 (1947) 
NYC: 85 (1947)
LGA: 86 (1947)
JFK: 77 (1978)

 

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1997)
NYC: 32 (1969)
LGA: 32 (1969)
JFK: 33 (1969)


Historical:

 

1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum)

1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)

 

1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78". The five minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. 

 

1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as "Mr. Tornado" after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.

 

1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. 

1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2015: On this day, Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph) and its central pressure fell to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury). Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory. Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997. While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

[jr461]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it 

I have a well, too, but unless pressure was noticeably lower or the water coming out of the faucets was no longer clear, how would one know if the well was running low?  Ours is about 120 feet deep FWIW.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, jr461 said:

I have a well, too, but unless pressure was noticeably lower or the water coming out of the faucets was no longer clear, how would one know if the well was running low?  Ours is about 120 feet deep FWIW.

I’ve never had well water so I know nothing about it. Just repeating what he told me last night